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A system dynamics analysis of energy dependency and consumption in Turkey
(Işık Üniversitesi, 2013-10-04) Ak, Muhammet Fatih; Altunbay, Seyhun; Işık Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Endüstri Mühendisliği - Yöneylem Araştırması Yüksek Lisans Programı
This study includes a system dynamics model to analyze the energy demand, production and energy consumption in an integrated framework. The main focus of this study is on domestic and imported energy consumption in Turkey. We develop a system dynamics model to analyze energy market of Turkey. By investigating last ten years demand data showed that the energy consumption increases exponentially and Turkey has heavily dependent on import. In this study, energy consumption in the energy industry is estimated under various production and export scenarios while taking into account new energy prices to see the energy demand outlook over the next one or two decades. In this work scenarios are investigated to decrease the energy dependency in Turkey. It is shown that, potential reduction in energy consumption by using alternative energies can lead billions of dollars in savings for the twenty year period.