Spatio-temporal analysis of hazelnut production and yield in Türkiye (1991–2022)

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dc.authorid0000-0001-7355-5339
dc.contributor.authorAydın, Şahinen_US
dc.date.accessioned2026-03-30T06:35:56Z
dc.date.available2026-03-30T06:35:56Z
dc.date.issued2026-01-11
dc.departmentIşık Üniversitesi, İktisadi, İdari ve Sosyal Bilimler Fakültesi, Enformasyon Teknolojileri Bölümüen_US
dc.departmentIşık University, Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences, Department of Information Technologiesen_US
dc.description.abstractThis study examines the dynamics of hazelnut production and yield in Türkiye between 1991 and 2022, based on long-term time series, spatial distribution, and regional comparisons. The findings reveal that fluctuations in production and yield have persisted, although a partial upward trend in production capacity has emerged in recent years. Spatial analyses confirm that the Black Sea belt remains the undisputed production core, while the Central Black Sea region, led by Samsun, has gained increasing importance. At the provincial level, Ordu, Giresun, and Sakarya stand out as key drivers of both total output and annual fluctuations. Overall, despite maintaining its global leadership, Türkiye’s hazelnut sector continues to face multidimensional challenges, including low productivity, regional imbalances, production volatility, and quality issues which result in income fluctuations for growers, inconsistent supply for processors, and difficulties in meeting stable quality and export requirements. Over the long term, Türkiye’s hazelnut production exhibits a clear upward trajectory. The average annual production increased from approximately 450 thousand tons in 1991–1999 to 559 thousand tons in 2000–2010, followed by a more moderate rise to 569 thousand tons in 2011–2019. A sharper growth pattern emerged in the recent period, with the average reaching 705 thousand tons in 2020–2022. Overall, these figures indicate a long-term increase of nearly 57% between the early 1990s and the early 2020s, reflecting structural improvements in production capacity despite year-to-year volatility. The relationship between yield and national production is weak (r = 0.11), indicating that structural factors such as fruit-bearing tree counts and orchard area play a dominant role. Methodologically, the study integrates long-term time-series techniques (moving averages, percentage change, rolling volatility, simplified CUSUM) with spatial mapping and province-level contribution analysis, providing a novel multi-dimensional assessment of Türkiye’s hazelnut sector over a 32-year period.en_US
dc.description.versionPublisher's Versionen_US
dc.identifier.citationAydın, Ş. (2026). Spatio-temporal analysis of hazelnut production and yield in Türkiye (1991–2022). The Turkish Journal of Agriculture – Food Science and Technology (TURJAF), 14(1), 155-171. doi:https://dx.doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v14i1.155-171.8265en_US
dc.identifier.endpage171
dc.identifier.issn2148-127X
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.startpage155
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11729/7189
dc.identifier.urihttps://dx.doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v14i1.155-171.8265
dc.identifier.volume14
dc.institutionauthorAydın, Şahinen_US
dc.institutionauthorid0000-0001-7355-5339
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.peerreviewedYesen_US
dc.publicationstatusPublisheden_US
dc.publisherTURSTEPen_US
dc.relation.ispartofThe Turkish Journal of Agriculture – Food Science and Technology (TURJAF)en_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Ulusal Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectHazelnut sectoren_US
dc.subjectBlack Sea regionen_US
dc.subjectProduction stabilityen_US
dc.subjectStructural factorsen_US
dc.subjectAgricultural policyen_US
dc.titleSpatio-temporal analysis of hazelnut production and yield in Türkiye (1991–2022)en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dspace.entity.typePublicationen_US

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