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The emergence of projected scaled patterns of extreme weather events over Europe
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2023-04-28) Öztürk, Tuğba; Canbaz, Emine; Bilgin, Başak; Matte, Dominic; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg
This work investigates the scalability of wet and dry persisting condition patterns over the European domain with global warming levels. For this aim, we have used the EURO-CORDEX ensemble of regional climate projections at 0.11° grid-mesh for daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation to analyze future changes in extreme weather events addressing climate warming levels of 1°C, 2°C, and 3°C, respectively. A simple scaling with the annual mean global mean temperature change modeled by the driving GCM is applied. The annual minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNN) is found to increase more compared to the annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXX) at the end of the century. We also identify the emergence of the scaled patterns of minimum and maximum temperatures and wet and dry persisting conditions about certain extreme weather indices. The emergence of the scaled patterns of TNN occurs from around 2040, whereas TXX pattern is emerging around 2050. Individual GCM-RCM pairs tend to have stable spatial patterns since then for both indices. The ensemble mean patterns are emerging earlier than the individual models.
Future circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2020-05-08) Öztürk, Tuğba; Matte, Dominic; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg
The occurrence of extreme weather events and climate extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean region are believed to be associated with changes and variability in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. CMIP5 models exhibits a substantial decrease in mid-latitude mean storm track activity for summer under climate change for a variety of scenarios. In this work, we aim to investigate future change in summer circulation and its implication for summer temperature and precipitation extremes over Europe particularly focusing on the Southeastern Mediterranean. EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11° grid-mesh are used to analyze future climate projections addressing climate warming targets of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for the variables in concern in order to provide robust signals not to be dependent on climate sensitivity. Our focus in this study is on monthly mean geopotential height, winds at mid- and lower-troposphere as indicators of the simulated circulation changes.
Projected changes of extreme events of temperature and precipitation in Central Asia CORDEX region 8 by using RegCM4.3.5
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2018-04-13) Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
In this study, projected future changes in daily extreme events of temperature and precipitation for the period 2070-2100 over the Central Asia CORDEX Region 8 with respect to present climate (from 1970 to 2000) were simulated based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) was used as a regional model for projections. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were downscaled to 50 km for the region. Changes in indices of climate extremes were investigated on daily basis for temperature and precipitation. The frequency and intensity distributions of daily data were analysed. Increases in future change of the annual number of hot days and warm nights, and decreases in cool days and cold nights were projected. Therefore, resultant more frequent and severe extreme weather events very likely adversely affect the ecological and socio-economic systems of Central Asia.
Future projection of air temperature and climatology for Cyprus by using RegCM4.4
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2018-04-13) Deler, Ferhan Büşra; Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
Climate change is the major problem of the world especially for island nations and Cyprus is one of this vulnerable regions. In this study, high-resolution regional climate simulations for the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100 in the seasonal averages of air temperature and precipitation variables with respect to the reference period of 1970 - 2000 were examined for Cyprus. Moreover, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was run by using two different global climate models. MPIESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and HadGEM2 of the Met Office Hadley Centre were dynamically downscaled to 10 km resolution by using double nesting. The emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) are used for projections. The result shows that while the temperature and sea surface temperature will increase, the precipitation will decrease. Obviously this is severely threatening the culture and life of the citizens of the island.
Investigation of high-resolution climate projections over Turkey and its surrounding regions using RegCM4.4
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2017-04-28) Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
In this study, projected future changes for the period of 2021-2050 in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and year-to-year variability with respect to the control period of 1971-2000 were investigated for the domain of Turkey and its surrounding regions via regional climate model simulations. In order to investigate the projected changes in near future climate conditions, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of ICTP (the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was driven by two different global climate models. HadGEM2-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were dynamically downscaled to 10 km for Turkey and its surrounding regions. The projections were performed based on the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Impacts of the future changes in extreme events on the regional crop yield in Turkey
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) An, Nazan; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
The changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey.
Assessment of projected changes in temperature and precipitation climatology over the CORDEX region 9 via multi model ensemble mean of CMIP5 models
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
In this study, we conduct a multi-model ensemble mean approach in order to investigate of projected changesin fundamental climate variables (i.e. mean air temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature,and precipitation total) over the CORDEX-Australasia domain based on the outputs of various coupled globalclimate models (GCMs) participating in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project (CMIP5). In this respect, in order to analyze projected future changes in temperature andprecipitation climatology, seasonal averages, and inter-annual variability over the Australasia (known as Region9) domain, where is one of fourteen domains of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), we focus on historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments of the GCMs for reference- (1981 - 2000),near- (2016 - 2035), mid- (2046 - 2065), and long-term (2081 - 2100), respectively.
Impacts of the future changes in extreme events on migration in the Middle East
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) An, Nazan; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
Natural hazards are defined as extreme events that threat people, their homes and their neighborhoods. They damage housing, food production system and other infrastructures. The frequency of natural hazards namely drought, floods can influence the residential decision-making and can cause substantial residential mobility by affecting relatively greater numbers of people in the region. Developing countries are more vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. Therefore, environmental migration can be associated with natural hazards especially in the developing countries. Limited water resources and demographic dynamics of the Middle East make the region one of the most affected domains from the impacts of natural hazards. In this study, we consider the relationship between migration as a demographic process and the frequency of natural hazards in the Middle East for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005 by performing the projection according to the scenario of IPCC, namely RCP8.5 through the RegCM4.4 and combining them with an econometric analysis.
Impacts of climate change on the climate extremes of the Middle East
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Çöllü, Kamil; Deler, F. Büşra; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
The Middle East is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. Because of the importance of the region and its vulnerability to global climate change, the studies including the investigation of projected changes in the climate of the Middle East play a crucial role in order to struggle with the negative effects of climate change. This research points out the relationship between the climate change and climate extremes indices in the Middle East and it investigates the changes in the number of extreme events as described by the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). As part of the study, the regional climate model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) is run to obtain future projection data.
Analysis of projected changes in precipitation regions of Turkey
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) Akbaş, Abdullah; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
Classification and clustering are important issues in climatology studies for water management. In this study, we examine the precipitation regions of Turkey with combination of the regional climate model outputs with a hierarchical cluster technique. Therefore, the outputs of the HadGEM2-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre were downscaled to 50 km for Turkey via Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) for the period of 2070 - 2100 with respect to the present period of 1970 - 2000 under two distinct case scenarios (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Thereafter, Ward’s method, which is commonly used in climate research, was also performed in order to cluster the precipitation data. In this context, spatial variations in precipitation regions of Turkey were determined for different climate change pathways.
Investigation of the drought probabilities over Turkey in a changing climate
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Akbaş, Abdullah; Saygılı, Sibel; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
As a consequence of the negative impacts of climate change, Turkey is under risk of an increased drought conditions. In this study, we aim to detect the possible changes in the intensity and frequency of drought conditions and to identify the spatial and temporal distributions of these changes throughout the country. Therefore, firstly the outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were downscaled to 50 km for Turkey via Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP). RCP8.5, which is the worst case emission pathway, is used to make future projection for the period of 2071 - 2100 with respect to the reference period of 1971 - 2000 over Turkey. Thereafter, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values, which are computed by using monthly precipitation totals data of the model, are obtained and classified for three timescales (i.e. 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month). Lastly, the spatial distribution maps, which determine the changes in drought probabilities over Turkey, are created in order to characterize better the impact of climate change on Turkey’s drought patterns.
İklim değişikliğinin Ergan Dağı kış sporları merkezi'nde yapay karlama kapasitesine etkisi
(Erzincan Üniversitesi Turizm ve Otelcilik Meslek Yüksekokulu Yayınları, 2016-04) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
İklim değişikliği, dünyada 80 ülkeye yayılan 6.000’e yakın kayak alanı için öncelikli bir tehdit haline gelmiştir. Enlem ve yükselti avantajı bulunmayan kayak merkezlerinde iklim değişikliğinin etkileri şimdiden gözlemlenmeye başlamış, nispeten avantajlı merkezler için ise geleceğe yönelik senaryo çalışmaları hız kazanmıştır. Bu tür çalışmalar, bir yandan merkezlerin iklim değişikliği karşısındaki kırılganlık derecelerini belirlerken diğer yandan da uyum kapasitelerini incelemektedir. Kar sporları turizminin iklim değişikliğine uyumu konusunda ise öncelikli olarak yapay karlama ve taşınma gibi teknik alternatifler mercek altına alınmaktadır. Bu çalışma, son senelerde kış turizmi yatırımları hızla artan Türkiye’nin yeni kayak merkezlerinden Ergan Dağı’nın (Erzincan) yapay karlama kapasitesine yönelik bir senaryo analizi içermektedir. Bunun için, HadGEM2-ES genel dolaşım modeli RegCM4.4 bölgesel iklim modeli ile koşularak 10 km çözünürlüğe indirgenmiş, 1971-2000 ve iyimser RCP4.5 sera gazı konsantrasyonu senaryosuna göre 2021-2050 dönemleri için kayak merkezinin 1924 m rakımındaki yakın yüzey hava sıcaklığı ve bağıl nem değerleri elde edilmiştir. Bu iki değişkene dair değerlerden yapay karlama sınırlarını belirleyen yaş termometre sıcaklıkları hesaplanmış ve kayak merkezinin geçmiş ve gelecek yapay karlama kapasitesi 0,5 oC/hm düşüş oranı kullanılarak kayak pistlerinin farklı rakımlarına göre değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, yapay karlama kapasitesinde genel bir azalma eğilimi olacağı tespit edilmiş ve bu azalışın merkezin alçak kesimlerinde taban katmanı yapımını riske sokabileceği sonucuna varılmıştır.
Impact of climate change on ski resorts in the Balkans the Middle East and the Caucasus a preliminary assessment for ski tourism in Northeast Turkey
(Istanbul Policy Center, 2015-09-19) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
[No abstract available]
Projections for changes in natural and technical snow reliability of a major Turkish ski resort by using RegCM4.3.5
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2014-05-02) Öztürk, Tuğba; Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
Climate change has been and increasingly will be a major threat to the ski tourism industry whose survival is highly dependent on existence of snow cover of sufficient depth and duration. The common knowledge requires that in order for a ski resort to be viable, it has to perform operations for at least 100 days in seven out of ten winters. For this matter, it is now even more usual for the ski resorts to adapt to this issue by technical snowmaking. In this study, projected future changes for the period of 2010-2040, 2040-2070, and 2070-2100 in air temperature, relative humidity, and snow depth climatology and variability with respect to the control period of 1970-2000 were assessed for the domain of a major ski resort in Turkey. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was used for projections of future and present climate conditions. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre, MPI-ESM-MR of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, GFDL-ESM2M of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory were downscaled to 10 km for the resort and its surrounding region. Both the projections and the downscaling were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC. The outputs on snow depth were used for a count of the changes on snow cover duration sufficient for skiing actitivies, signaling natural snow-reliability, whereas the outputs on air temperature and relative humidity were utilized for determination of wet-bulb temperatures. The latter measure was used to interpret the changes in the snowmaking capacity, in other words; technical snow-reliability, of the resort.
A refined methodology for modelling climate change impacts on snow sports tourism
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2015-04-17) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
Nature-based tourism is one of the most vulnerable sectors of the economy against climate change. Among its types, winter tourism stands out as the most critical due to the relatively high exposure and sensitivity of snow cover to the anthropogenic warming trends. In this study, we aim at improving previous works by Ozturk et al. where snow reliability of ski resorts have been examined through projections based on regional climate model outputs downscaled from various GCMs. Major improvements to these studies will be related to increasing the resolution, obtaining snow depth values from snow-water equivalent outputs, and hourly, instead of the daily, calculations of wet bulb temperatures. Daily snow depth values will be utilized for 100-days rule that looks for at least 100 days of snow cover at a minimum of 30 cm in order for a ski resort to be viable, whereas the wet bulb temperatures below -7 oC will indicate the snowmaking capacity. The domain of analysis will be the Balkans, the Middle East and the Caucasus. Therefore the spatial gap in the mostly Euro- and Amero-centric literature will also be improved. The domain will be modelled through RegCM 4.4.2 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics basing its resolution on MPI-ESM-MR of Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie and the concentration scenario RCP 4.5 for a realistic tourism development future of 2020-2050.
The Climate Change Impacts on the regional crop yield in Turkey
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2015-04-17) An, Nazan; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
This paper emphasizes the relationship between climate change and crop yield in Turkey and discusses how the variables representing the climate change impacts affect the regional crop yield in Turkey. The impacts of climate change are represented as the function of vulnerability for the period of 1980-2010. There are 2 steps in this research. Firstly, regional climate modeling is conducted for obtaining to the climatic parameters, namely total precipitation and mean air temperature. We focus on the role of those climatic variables on the crop yield. The projections were performed according to the scenarios of IPCC, namely RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5. According to the regional model results, it is seen that there will be an increase up to the 4 ◦C in mean air temperatures of Turkey for the period of 2020 – 2050 with respect to the period of 1970 – 2000 and also precipitation climatology of Turkey shows a decrease up to 1.2 mm/day. In the second part of the study, climatic parameters are combined and interpreted together through the panel data analysis and we examined that how the variables representing the climate change impacts have an influence on the crop yield in the some crucial regions for the crop production of Turkey. Estimated risks for crops in the panel data analysis differ from each other resulting from increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall.
Simulations of future drought conditions in Central Asia CORDEX Region 8 by using RegCM 4.3.5
(2015-01-14) Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
In this work, projected future changes in mean surface air temperature and precipitation climatology, inter-annual and seasonal variability and climatic aridity/humidity conditions for the period 2070-2100 over the large Central Asia region with respect to present climate (from 1970 to 2000) were simulated based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) was used for projections of future and present climate conditions. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX Region 8. We investigated the seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.3.5 in reproducing observed climatology over the domain of Central Asia by using 2 different global climate model outputs. For the future climatology of the domain, the regional model predicts relatively high warming in the warm season and northern part of the domain at cold season with a decrease in precipitation almost all part of the domain. The results of our study show that surface temperatures in the region will increase from 3 °C up to more than 7 °C on average according to the emission scenarios for the period 2070-2100 with respect to past period 1970-2000. Therefore, the projected warming and decrease in precipitation and also resultant or associated increased aridity and more frequent and severe drought events very likely adversely affect the ecological and socio-economic systems of this region, which is already characterised with mostly arid and semi-arid climate and ecosystems.
Future projections of air temperature and precipitation for the CORDEX-MENA domain by using RegCM4.3.5
(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2015-04-17) Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
In this study, the projected changes for the periods of 2016 – 2035, 2046 – 2065, and 2081 – 2100 in the seasonal averages of air temperature and precipitation variables with respect to the reference period of 1981 - 2000 were examined for the Middle East and North Africa region. In this context, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was run by using two different global climate models. MPIESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and HadGEM2 of the Met Office Hadley Centre were dynamically downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX-MENA domain. The projections were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change).
Climate change versus 'security and peace' in the Mediterranean macroclimate region: are they correlated?
(Coventry University, 2011-10-28) Türkeş, Murat; Öztürk, Tuğba; Altınsoy, Hamza
Climate change, whether its global or regional scale, is one of the most significant and far-reaching challenges that the human societies living in the Earth’s surface have faced in the 21st century as it was in the 20th century. Consequently, the aim of this study is to scientifically assess impacts of the global and regional climate changes and variability including decreased precipitation amounts (drying) and increased air temperatures (warming) that would very likely cause to increase frequencies, durations and intensities of the drought events in the Mediterranean basin and Turkey, and associated problems and consequences with respect to the global, regional and national peace, prosperity and security issues and concerns.
Assessment of simulated changes in air temperature and precipitation over the mediterranean region via multi-model ensemble means of CMIP5 models
(Middle East Technical University, 2014-06-23) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
In this study, a multi-model ensemble mean approach was conducted in order to investigate the projected changes in near surface air temperatures and precipitation totals over the Mediterranean region. Among sixty seven different models of thirty modeling groups all around the world participating in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), fourteen models were used. In this respect, we focused on two distinct scenarios (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three different future periods (i.e. 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100) to examine accurately the foreseen changes in two fundamental climate variables (near surface air temperature and precipitation total) for the Mediterranean region.

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