Economic dynamics of air pollution in Türkiye and Pakistan: an empirical assessment of the Environmental Kuznets Curve and pollution-led growth

Türkiye and Pakistan, despite differing levels of economic development, face similar macroeconomic challenges such as income inequality, inflation and debt. Both countries also experience environmental pressures from industrialization and rapid urbanization, with air pollution emerging as a critical concern affecting economic productivity and sustainable development. This study conducts a comparative analysis of air pollution in Türkiye and Pakistan from 1980 to 2023, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to examine the short and long run relationships between air pollution, urbanization, industrialization, energy consumption and macroeconomic policies. The analysis tests the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for Türkiye and the pollution-led growth hypothesis for Pakistan. Findings reject the EKC for Türkiye but confirm pollution-led growth in Pakistan, offering insights for effective environmental regulation and sustainable development strategies.