Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.authorid0000-0002-6839-5622
dc.authorid0000-0003-1170-2182
dc.authorid0000-0002-3962-4588
dc.authorid0000-0002-0830-1831
dc.authorid0000-0003-3050-9847
dc.authorid0000-0003-0216-2014
dc.authorid0000-0001-8598-8596
dc.authorid0000-0001-5991-0322
dc.authorid0000-0001-9033-4925
dc.authorid0000-0001-9834-2612
dc.authorid0000-0001-6307-3846
dc.contributor.authorZittis, Georgeen_US
dc.contributor.authorHadjinicolaou, Panosen_US
dc.contributor.authorAlmazroui, Mansouren_US
dc.contributor.authorBucchignani, Edoardoen_US
dc.contributor.authorDriouech, Fatimaen_US
dc.contributor.authorEl Rhaz, Khaliden_US
dc.contributor.authorKurnaz, Leventen_US
dc.contributor.authorNikulin, Grigoryen_US
dc.contributor.authorNtoumos, Athanasiosen_US
dc.contributor.authorÖztürk, Tuğbaen_US
dc.contributor.authorProestos, Yiannisen_US
dc.contributor.authorStenchikov, Georgiyen_US
dc.contributor.authorZaaboul, Rashyden_US
dc.contributor.authorLelieveld, Josen_US
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-30T08:28:18Z
dc.date.available2021-03-30T08:28:18Z
dc.date.issued2021-03-21
dc.departmentIşık Üniversitesi, Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi, Fizik Bölümüen_US
dc.departmentIşık University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Physicsen_US
dc.description.abstractGlobal climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 degrees C and higher) and will be of extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening for humans. By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) could be exposed to annually recurring super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. It is expected that the vast majority of the exposed population (>90%) will live in urban centers, who would need to cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions.en_US
dc.description.versionPublisher's Versionen_US
dc.identifier.citationZittis, G., Hadjinicolaou, P., Almazroui, M., Bucchignani, E., Driouech, F., El Rhaz, K., Kurnaz, L., Nikulin, G., Ntoumos, A. & Öztürk, T. (2021). Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa. NPJ Climate And Atmospheric Science, 4(1), 1-9. doi:10.1038/s41612-021-00178-7en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41612-021-00178-7
dc.identifier.endpage9
dc.identifier.issn2397-3722
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85103220083
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage1
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11729/3106
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00178-7
dc.identifier.volume4
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000632061000001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScience Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakSocial Sciences Citation Index (SSCI)en_US
dc.institutionauthorÖztürk, Tuğbaen_US
dc.institutionauthorid0000-0001-8598-8596
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.peerreviewedYesen_US
dc.publicationstatusPublisheden_US
dc.publisherNature Researchen_US
dc.relation.ispartofNPJ Climate And Atmospheric Scienceen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectClimate-changeen_US
dc.subjectTemperature extremesen_US
dc.subjectHeat wavesen_US
dc.subjectFuture temperatureen_US
dc.subjectCosmo-CLMen_US
dc.subjectTrendsen_US
dc.subjectSimulationsen_US
dc.subjectProjecten_US
dc.subjectIONSen_US
dc.subjectPatternsen_US
dc.subjectImpactsen_US
dc.titleBusiness-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication

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