Drought analysis in the Seyhan River Basin based on standardized drought indices using a new approach considering seasonality

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dc.authorid0009-0003-7404-281X
dc.authorid0000-0002-4531-2476
dc.contributor.authorTerzi, Tolga Barışen_US
dc.contributor.authorÖnöz, Bihraten_US
dc.date.accessioned2025-08-26T10:56:58Z
dc.date.available2025-08-26T10:56:58Z
dc.date.issued2025-01
dc.departmentIşık Üniversitesi, Mühendislik ve Doğa Bilimleri Fakültesi, İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.departmentIşık University, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Department of Civil Engineeringen_US
dc.description.abstractDrought is a significant natural disaster with adverse effects on both social and ecological systems. Unlike other natural disasters, drought develops slowly and gradually, complicating its early detection and often resulting in severe impacts on affected regions. Consequently, accurate and dependable drought monitoring is essential for devising effective mitigation strategies. Standardized drought indices are vital tools in drought monitoring, providing a means to quantify and characterize drought events. Most standardized drought indices utilize the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method, which is valued for its simplicity and flexibility. However, this study contends that the SPI method lacks several critical elements, particularly in practice, such as determining the most suitable probability distribution for hydrometeorological variables. Therefore, this study proposes a novel methodology for calculating standardized drought indices and assesses its performance against conventional and nonparametric standardized indices, employing various methods capable of capturing complex dependencies. The novel methodology involves identifying the best-fit probability distributions for each data group through various goodness-of-fit tests. This approach ensures that each group is modeled optimally, considering the seasonal variations inherent to each group. The Seyhan River Basin has been chosen as a case study for the proposed methodology. The drought characteristics of the basin are analyzed using indices derived from the new methodology, the conventional SPI method, and the nonparametric method. Additionally, trend analyses were performed on the calculated indices to identify any directional changes in drought patterns within the Seyhan River Basin. The performance of the proposed methodology was evaluated by analyzing its relationship with nonparametric standardized indices and comparing it to the relationship between conventional standardized indices and nonparametric standardized indices. The results show that the newly proposed methodology outperforms the conventional SPI method across various dependence measures, suggesting it captures the underlying data structure more effectively than the SPI method.en_US
dc.description.versionPublisher's Versionen_US
dc.identifier.citationTerzi, T. B. & Önöz, B. (2025). Drought analysis in the Seyhan River Basin based on standardized drought indices using a new approach considering seasonality. Environmental Earth Sciences, 84(1), 1-22. doi:10.1007/s12665-024-12039-6en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s12665-024-12039-6
dc.identifier.endpage22
dc.identifier.issn1866-6280
dc.identifier.issn1866-6299
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85213553212
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage1
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11729/6658
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-12039-6
dc.identifier.volume84
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001389579000001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScience Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)en_US
dc.institutionauthorÖnöz, Bihraten_US
dc.institutionauthorid0000-0002-4531-2476
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.peerreviewedYesen_US
dc.publicationstatusPublisheden_US
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbHen_US
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironmental Earth Sciencesen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectDroughten_US
dc.subjectStandardized drought indicesen_US
dc.subjectStandardized precipitation indexen_US
dc.subjectStandardized streamflow indexen_US
dc.subjectSeyhan Basinen_US
dc.subjectTurkeyen_US
dc.subjectDrought monitoringen_US
dc.subjectNatural disastersen_US
dc.subjectNonparametricsen_US
dc.subjectNovel methodologyen_US
dc.subjectPerformanceen_US
dc.subjectProbability: distributionsen_US
dc.subjectRiver basinsen_US
dc.subjectStandardized drought indexen_US
dc.subjectStandardized streamflow indicesen_US
dc.subjectDisaster managementen_US
dc.subjectProbabilityen_US
dc.subjectSeasonalityen_US
dc.subjectStreamflowen_US
dc.subjectCandidate distributionsen_US
dc.subjectPrecipitationen_US
dc.subjectSensitivityen_US
dc.subjectDependenceen_US
dc.subjectFrequencyen_US
dc.subjectDeficiten_US
dc.subjectSPIen_US
dc.titleDrought analysis in the Seyhan River Basin based on standardized drought indices using a new approach considering seasonalityen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dspace.entity.typePublicationen_US

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