Sensitivity analysis for models with multiple behavior modes: a method based on behavior pattern measures

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Küçük Resim

Tarih

2016-12

Dergi Başlığı

Dergi ISSN

Cilt Başlığı

Yayıncı

Erişim Hakkı

info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess

Araştırma projeleri

Organizasyon Birimleri

Dergi sayısı

Özet

Sensitivity analysis of system dynamics models is essentially about sensitivity of patterns of output behaviors to inputs, since system dynamics modeling is behavior pattern oriented. In this study, a regression-based procedure for pattern sensitivity analysis is developed, by defining behavior pattern measures such as equilibrium level, trend, inflection point, or oscillation amplitude. A unique feature of the procedure is that it takes into account the possibility of a model generating multiple behavior modes. This pattern-oriented procedure is next applied to the tipping point project management model and a generic supply line model. These test applications yield sensitivity results that are meaningful, and also consistent with previously available sensitivity information about the parameters of these models. Finally, our pattern sensitivity analysis is shown to be a useful and effective method also for oscillatory system dynamics models, an unsolved sensitivity problem previously in the literature.

Açıklama

Anahtar Kelimeler

Loop dominance analysis, System dynamics models, Validation, Robustness, Simulation

Kaynak

System Dynamics Review

WoS Q Değeri

Q1

Scopus Q Değeri

Q1

Cilt

32

Sayı

3-4

Künye

Hekimoğlu, M. & Barlas, Y. (2016). Sensitivity analysis for models with multiple behavior modes: A method based on behavior pattern measures. System Dynamics Review, 32(3-4), 332-362. doi:10.1002/sdr.1568