Future global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX data

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dc.authorid0000-0001-8598-8596
dc.contributor.authorSpinoni, Jonathanen_US
dc.contributor.authorBarbosa, Pauloen_US
dc.contributor.authorBucchignani, Edoardoen_US
dc.contributor.authorCassano, Johnen_US
dc.contributor.authorCavazos, Terezaen_US
dc.contributor.authorChristensen, Jens H.en_US
dc.contributor.authorChristensen, Ole B.en_US
dc.contributor.authorCoppola, Erikaen_US
dc.contributor.authorEvans, Jasonen_US
dc.contributor.authorGeyer, Beateen_US
dc.contributor.authorGiorgi, Filippoen_US
dc.contributor.authorHadjinicolaou, Panosen_US
dc.contributor.authorJacob, Danielaen_US
dc.contributor.authorKatzfey, Jacken_US
dc.contributor.authorKoenigk, Torbenen_US
dc.contributor.authorLaprise, Reneen_US
dc.contributor.authorLennard, Christopher J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorKurnaz, Mehmet Leventen_US
dc.contributor.authorLi, Deleien_US
dc.contributor.authorLlopart, Martaen_US
dc.contributor.authorMcCormick, Niallen_US
dc.contributor.authorNaumann, Gustavoen_US
dc.contributor.authorNikulin, Grigoryen_US
dc.contributor.authorÖztürk, Tuğbaen_US
dc.contributor.authorPanitz, Hans-Juergenen_US
dc.contributor.authorda Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirioen_US
dc.contributor.authorRockel, Burkhardten_US
dc.contributor.authorSolman, Silvina A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorSyktus, Jozefen_US
dc.contributor.authorTangang, Fredolinen_US
dc.contributor.authorTeichmann, Claasen_US
dc.contributor.authorVautard, Roberten_US
dc.contributor.authorVogt, Juergen V.en_US
dc.contributor.authorWinger, Katjaen_US
dc.contributor.authorZittis, Georgeen_US
dc.contributor.authorDosio, Alessandroen_US
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-04T08:33:41Z
dc.date.available2020-08-04T08:33:41Z
dc.date.issued2020-05-01
dc.departmentIşık Üniversitesi, Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi, Fizik Bölümüen_US
dc.departmentIşık University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Physicsen_US
dc.description.abstractTwo questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.448) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only,;15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (;47% under RCP4.5,;49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.en_US
dc.description.versionPublisher's Versionen_US
dc.identifier.citationSpinoni, J., Barbosa, P., Bucchignani, E., Cassano, J., Cavazos, T., Christensen, J. H., Öztürk, T., . . . Dosio, A. (2020). Future global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX data. Journal of Climate, 33(9), 3635-3661. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
dc.identifier.endpage3661
dc.identifier.issn0894-8755
dc.identifier.issn1520-0442
dc.identifier.issue9
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85088294520
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage3635
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11729/2362
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
dc.identifier.volume33
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000568259800013
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScience Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)en_US
dc.institutionauthorÖztürk, Tuğbaen_US
dc.institutionauthorid0000-0001-8598-8596
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.peerreviewedYesen_US
dc.publicationstatusPublisheden_US
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Climateen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectDroughten_US
dc.subjectPrecipitationen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectClimate predictionen_US
dc.subjectTemperatureen_US
dc.subjectClimate modelsen_US
dc.subjectEvapotranspirationen_US
dc.subjectRiver basinsen_US
dc.subjectDrought characteristicsen_US
dc.subjectGlobal circulation modelen_US
dc.subjectMediterranean regionen_US
dc.subjectMeteorological droughten_US
dc.subjectNorthern Hemispheresen_US
dc.subjectRegional circulation modelsen_US
dc.subjectSouthern South Americaen_US
dc.subjectStandardized precipitation indexen_US
dc.titleFuture global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX dataen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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