Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study

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dc.authorid0000-0001-8598-8596
dc.contributor.authorSpinoni, Jonathanen_US
dc.contributor.authorBarbosa, Pauloen_US
dc.contributor.authorBucchignani, Edoardoen_US
dc.contributor.authorCassano, Johnen_US
dc.contributor.authorCavazos, Terezaen_US
dc.contributor.authorCescatti, Alessandroen_US
dc.contributor.authorChristensen, Jens Hesselbjergen_US
dc.contributor.authorChristensen, Ole Bossingen_US
dc.contributor.authorCoppola, Erikaen_US
dc.contributor.authorEvans, Jasonen_US
dc.contributor.authorForzieri, Giovannien_US
dc.contributor.authorGeyer, Beateen_US
dc.contributor.authorGiorgi, Filippoen_US
dc.contributor.authorJacob, Danielaen_US
dc.contributor.authorKatzfey, Jacken_US
dc.contributor.authorKoenigk, Torbenen_US
dc.contributor.authorLaprise, Reneen_US
dc.contributor.authorLennard, Christopher Johnen_US
dc.contributor.authorKurnaz, Mehmet Leventen_US
dc.contributor.authorLi, Deleien_US
dc.contributor.authorLlopart, Martaen_US
dc.contributor.authorMcCormick, Niallen_US
dc.contributor.authorNaumann, Gustavoen_US
dc.contributor.authorNikulin, Grigoryen_US
dc.contributor.authorÖztürk, Tuğbaen_US
dc.contributor.authorPanitz, Hans-Jurgenen_US
dc.contributor.authorda Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirioen_US
dc.contributor.authorSolman, Silvina Aliciaen_US
dc.contributor.authorSyktus, Jozefen_US
dc.contributor.authorTangang, Fredolinen_US
dc.contributor.authorTeichmann, Claasen_US
dc.contributor.authorVautard, Roberten_US
dc.contributor.authorVogt, Jurgen Valentinen_US
dc.contributor.authorWinger, Katjaen_US
dc.contributor.authorZittis, Georgeen_US
dc.contributor.authorDosio, Alessandroen_US
dc.date.accessioned2021-09-06T09:26:06Z
dc.date.available2021-09-06T09:26:06Z
dc.date.issued2021-12
dc.departmentIşık Üniversitesi, Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi, Fizik Bölümüen_US
dc.departmentIşık University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Physicsen_US
dc.description.abstractGlobal warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset, and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981-2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs, from 1.5 to 4 degrees C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the combination SSP3-GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (vs. 1981-2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 (fossil-fuelled development) at GWL 4 degrees C, approximately 2 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests and croplands (respectively, 6 and 11%) and 1.5 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI, this extent will rise to 17 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests (49%), 6 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (78%), and 12 center dot 10(6) km(2) of croplands (67%), with mid-latitudes being the most affected areas. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.en_US
dc.identifier.citationSpinoni, J., Barbosa, P., Bucchignani, E., Cassano, J., Cavazos, T., Cescatti, A., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Coppola, E., Evans, J., Forzieri, G., Geyer, B., Giorgi, F., Jacob, D., Katzfey, J., Koenigk, T., Laprise, R., Lennard, C. J., Kurnaz, M. L., Li, Delei., Llopart, M., McCormick, N., Naumann, G., Nikulin, G., Öztürk, T., Panitz, H.-J., da Rocha, R. P., Solman, S. A., Syktus, J., Tangang, F., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Vogt, J. V., Winger, K., Zittis, G. & Dosio, A. (2021). Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study. International Journal Of Climatology, 41(15), 6825-6853. doi: 10.1002/joc.7302en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/joc.7302
dc.identifier.endpage6853
dc.identifier.issn0899-8418
dc.identifier.issn1097-0088
dc.identifier.issue15
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85111738749
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage6825
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11729/3217
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7302
dc.identifier.volume41
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000681018300001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScience Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakSocial Sciences Citation Index (SSCI)en_US
dc.institutionauthorÖztürk, Tuğbaen_US
dc.institutionauthorid0000-0001-8598-8596
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.peerreviewedYesen_US
dc.publicationstatusPublisheden_US
dc.publisherJohn Wiley and Sons Ltden_US
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal Of Climatologyen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subject2 degrees-Cen_US
dc.subjectClimate projectionsen_US
dc.subjectCORDEXen_US
dc.subjectCrop productionen_US
dc.subjectDisaster risken_US
dc.subjectDroughten_US
dc.subjectEuro-cordexen_US
dc.subjectFuture droughten_US
dc.subjectGlobal warming levelsen_US
dc.subjectLand-useen_US
dc.subjectPopulationen_US
dc.subjectProjectionsen_US
dc.subjectSocioeconomic scenariosen_US
dc.subjectSoil-moistureen_US
dc.subjectSummer monsoonen_US
dc.subjectTree mortalityen_US
dc.subjectVulnerabilityen_US
dc.titleGlobal exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based studyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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