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Yayın Impacts of climate change on precipitation climatology and variability in Turkey(Springer International Publishing Ag, 2020) Türkeş, Murat; Turp, M. Tufan; An, Nazan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this chapter, changes in seasonal precipitation climatology, extreme weather conditions, and aridity conditions of Turkey are evaluated for the period of 2021-2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971-2000 by using regional climate model simulations. Projections of future climate conditions are modeled by forcing Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.4 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The outputs of MPI-ESM-MR are used to generate 10 km resolution data by the double nesting method under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.4 in reproducing the observed climatology over Turkey is tested by using the output of the global climate model. The projection results show a strong decrease in precipitation for almost all parts of the domain according to the output of the regional model. The intensity of drought conditions is projected to increase. According to the projection results, more arid conditions are expected in the region for the near future. Therefore, drier than present climate conditions are projected to occur more intensely over Turkey.Yayın Technical climate change adaptation options of the major ski resorts in Bulgaria(Springer International Publishing, 2016-01-01) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventClimate change has been and increasingly will be a major threat to the ski tourism industry, whose survival is highly dependent on the existence of snow cover of sufficient depth and duration. For this matter, it is even now more usual for the ski resorts to adapt to this issue by various measures at the technical, operational, and political levels. Technically speaking, snowmaking has become the method most used throughout the industry to combat the immediate impacts of climate change, while moving the ski areas to higher terrains has been standing out as an another option, wherever available and feasible. In this study, the aim is to project the future climatic changes in snowmaking capacity; in other words, technical snow reliability, and the moving requirements, if any, of the four major ski resorts in Bulgaria for the period of 2016-2030 with respect to the control period of 1991- 2005. For this purpose, the past and the future climatic conditions for the technical snow reliability of the ski resorts and their immediate surroundings are determined by the temperature and the relative humidity values generated and projected through the Regional Climate Model RegCM 4.4 of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) by scaling the global climate model MPI-ESM-MR of Max Planck Institute for Meteorology down to a resolution of 10 km. The model is further processed according to the recent RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration scenarios of the IPCC. The model outputs on air temperature and relative humidity are utilized for determination of wet-bulb temperatures through psychographic conversions that ultimately provide us with thresholds for snowmaking limits. Findings display the temporal changes in the snowmaking hours of the ski resorts at various altitudinal levels calculated according to the environmental lapse rates. Such displays can guide the practitioners in considering investment lives and moving the ski resorts according to optimistic and pessimistic projections.Yayın Simulating the climatology of extreme events for the Central Asia domain using the RegCM 4.0 regional climate model(Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2012-01-01) Altınsoy, Hamza; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this work, future changes in the frequency of the seasonal extreme climate events such as number, frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves (5 consecutive temperature days above the maximum temperature calendar day 90th percentiles, number of days per year that is above the same percentiles and greatest number of consecutive days above these percentiles) for the period of 2071–2100 over Central Asia (18.56 –70.13 East and 7.28 –142.4 North) with respect to the present period of 1971–2000 were studied in detail. Regional Climate Model RegCM 4.0 of Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with ECHAM5 forcing data was used for hindcast and forecast projection. This region will very likely be affected by heat waves in winter and spring seasons and heat wave frequency, intensity and duration will increase significantly over the Arabian Peninsula in summer. On the other hand, cold spells will not change as much as heat waves over the region in all seasons.Yayın Case study Turkey: climate changeand coastal tourism: impacts of climate change on the turquoise coast(CAB International, 2017-11-29) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Akbaş, Abdullah; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThis chapter tries to assess the severity of expected climate change impacts on tourism at the Turquoise Coast (Turkey) and build up an adaptation agenda for the concerned parties. First, sea level rise projections are considered to understand the degree of exposure at the immediate coastal zone. A storm and flood risk projection follows to visualize any additional risks on the coasts as well as for the nautical tourism routes. A climate model also provides with outputs for determining the changes in the touristic climate comfort as well as spotting any increase of heatwave events. The changing windiness characteristics are also investigated to determine implications for surf tourism. Lastly, an aridity index and water deficit projections are interpreted to understand a conflicting future where water availability could decrease, whereas the growth of the tourism industry, particularly golf tourism, would imply more consumption of water resources. The assessments are finalized with implications on the future of a major component of diving tourism in the north Aegean - the red coral.
