2 sonuçlar
Arama Sonuçları
Listeleniyor 1 - 2 / 2
Yayın The emergence of projected scaled patterns of extreme temperatures over Europe(Frontiers Media SA, 2023-06-28) Öztürk, Tuğba; Canbaz, Emine; Bilgin, Başak; Matte, Dominic; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent; Christensen, Jens HesselbjergThis work investigates the scalability of extreme temperatures over the European domain with global warming levels. We have used the EURO-CORDEX ensemble of regional model simulations at 0.11° resolution for daily minimum and maximum temperatures to analyze future changes in extreme weather daily events. Scaling with the annual mean global warming modeled by the driving GCM was applied to future extreme temperature indices changes. Regional changes in each index were scaled by corresponding global warming levels obtained from GCMs. This approach asserts that regional patterns of climate change and average global temperature change are linearly related. It can provide information regarding climate change for periods or emission scenarios when no simulations exist. According to the results, the annual minimum of the lowest temperature of the day (TNn) increases more than the annual maximum of the highest temperature of the day (TXx) for Europe. The multi-model mean of the changes in scaled patterns of extreme temperatures emerges early, around 2020, even before it becomes robust. Individual scaled patterns of TNn and TXx emerge from around 2040.Yayın Robustness of future atmospheric circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2022-09) Öztürk, Tuğba; Matte, Dominic; Christensen, Jens HesselbjergEuropean climate is associated with variability and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aim to investigate potential future change in circulation over Europe by using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11° grid mesh. In particular, we analyze future change in 500-hPa geopotential height (Gph), 500-hPa wind speed and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) addressing different warming levels of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for monthly mean 500-hPa Gph and 500-hPa wind speed. Results from the ensemble mean of individual models show a robust increase in 500-hPa Gph and MSLP in winter over Mediterranean and Central Europe, indicating an intensification of anticyclonic circulation. This circulation change emerges robustly in most simulations within the coming decade. There are also enhanced westerlies which transport warm and moist air to the Mediterranean and Central Europe in winter and spring. It is also clear that, models showing different responses to circulation depend very much on the global climate model ensemble member in which they are nested. For all seasons, particularly autumn, the ensemble mean is much more correlated with the end of the century than most of the individual models. In general, the emergence of a scaled pattern appears rather quickly.
