7 sonuçlar
Arama Sonuçları
Listeleniyor 1 - 7 / 7
Yayın Impact of climate change on natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacities, and wind conditions of ski Resorts in Northeast Turkey: a dynamical downscaling approach(Mdpi Ag, 2016-04) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventMany ski resorts worldwide are going through deteriorating snow cover conditions due to anthropogenic warming trends. As the natural and the artificially supported, i.e., technical, snow reliability of ski resorts diminish, the industry approaches a deadlock. For this reason, impact assessment studies have become vital for understanding vulnerability of ski tourism. This study considers three resorts at one of the rapidly emerging ski destinations, Northeast Turkey, for snow reliability analyses. Initially one global circulation model is dynamically downscaled by using the regional climate model RegCM4.4 for 1971-2000 and 2021-2050 periods along the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway. Next, the projected climate outputs are converted into indicators of natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacity, and wind conditions. The results show an overall decline in the frequencies of naturally snow reliable days and snowmaking capacities between the two periods. Despite the decrease, only the lower altitudes of one ski resort would face the risk of losing natural snow reliability and snowmaking could still compensate for forming the base layer before the critical New Year's week. On the other hand, adverse high wind conditions improve as to reduce the number of lift closure days at all resorts. Overall, this particular region seems to be relatively resilient against climate change.Yayın Technical climate change adaptation options of the major ski resorts in Bulgaria(Springer International Publishing, 2016-01-01) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventClimate change has been and increasingly will be a major threat to the ski tourism industry, whose survival is highly dependent on the existence of snow cover of sufficient depth and duration. For this matter, it is even now more usual for the ski resorts to adapt to this issue by various measures at the technical, operational, and political levels. Technically speaking, snowmaking has become the method most used throughout the industry to combat the immediate impacts of climate change, while moving the ski areas to higher terrains has been standing out as an another option, wherever available and feasible. In this study, the aim is to project the future climatic changes in snowmaking capacity; in other words, technical snow reliability, and the moving requirements, if any, of the four major ski resorts in Bulgaria for the period of 2016-2030 with respect to the control period of 1991- 2005. For this purpose, the past and the future climatic conditions for the technical snow reliability of the ski resorts and their immediate surroundings are determined by the temperature and the relative humidity values generated and projected through the Regional Climate Model RegCM 4.4 of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) by scaling the global climate model MPI-ESM-MR of Max Planck Institute for Meteorology down to a resolution of 10 km. The model is further processed according to the recent RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration scenarios of the IPCC. The model outputs on air temperature and relative humidity are utilized for determination of wet-bulb temperatures through psychographic conversions that ultimately provide us with thresholds for snowmaking limits. Findings display the temporal changes in the snowmaking hours of the ski resorts at various altitudinal levels calculated according to the environmental lapse rates. Such displays can guide the practitioners in considering investment lives and moving the ski resorts according to optimistic and pessimistic projections.Yayın Projections for changes in natural and technical snow reliability of a major Turkish ski resort by using RegCM4.3.5(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2014-05-02) Öztürk, Tuğba; Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventClimate change has been and increasingly will be a major threat to the ski tourism industry whose survival is highly dependent on existence of snow cover of sufficient depth and duration. The common knowledge requires that in order for a ski resort to be viable, it has to perform operations for at least 100 days in seven out of ten winters. For this matter, it is now even more usual for the ski resorts to adapt to this issue by technical snowmaking. In this study, projected future changes for the period of 2010-2040, 2040-2070, and 2070-2100 in air temperature, relative humidity, and snow depth climatology and variability with respect to the control period of 1970-2000 were assessed for the domain of a major ski resort in Turkey. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was used for projections of future and present climate conditions. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre, MPI-ESM-MR of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, GFDL-ESM2M of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory were downscaled to 10 km for the resort and its surrounding region. Both the projections and the downscaling were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC. The outputs on snow depth were used for a count of the changes on snow cover duration sufficient for skiing actitivies, signaling natural snow-reliability, whereas the outputs on air temperature and relative humidity were utilized for determination of wet-bulb temperatures. The latter measure was used to interpret the changes in the snowmaking capacity, in other words; technical snow-reliability, of the resort.Yayın A refined methodology for modelling climate change impacts on snow sports tourism(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2015-04-17) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventNature-based tourism is one of the most vulnerable sectors of the economy against climate change. Among its types, winter tourism stands out as the most critical due to the relatively high exposure and sensitivity of snow cover to the anthropogenic warming trends. In this study, we aim at improving previous works by Ozturk et al. where snow reliability of ski resorts have been examined through projections based on regional climate model outputs downscaled from various GCMs. Major improvements to these studies will be related to increasing the resolution, obtaining snow depth values from snow-water equivalent outputs, and hourly, instead of the daily, calculations of wet bulb temperatures. Daily snow depth values will be utilized for 100-days rule that looks for at least 100 days of snow cover at a minimum of 30 cm in order for a ski resort to be viable, whereas the wet bulb temperatures below -7 oC will indicate the snowmaking capacity. The domain of analysis will be the Balkans, the Middle East and the Caucasus. Therefore the spatial gap in the mostly Euro- and Amero-centric literature will also be improved. The domain will be modelled through RegCM 4.4.2 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics basing its resolution on MPI-ESM-MR of Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie and the concentration scenario RCP 4.5 for a realistic tourism development future of 2020-2050.Yayın Case study Turkey: climate changeand coastal tourism: impacts of climate change on the turquoise coast(CAB International, 2017-11-29) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Akbaş, Abdullah; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThis chapter tries to assess the severity of expected climate change impacts on tourism at the Turquoise Coast (Turkey) and build up an adaptation agenda for the concerned parties. First, sea level rise projections are considered to understand the degree of exposure at the immediate coastal zone. A storm and flood risk projection follows to visualize any additional risks on the coasts as well as for the nautical tourism routes. A climate model also provides with outputs for determining the changes in the touristic climate comfort as well as spotting any increase of heatwave events. The changing windiness characteristics are also investigated to determine implications for surf tourism. Lastly, an aridity index and water deficit projections are interpreted to understand a conflicting future where water availability could decrease, whereas the growth of the tourism industry, particularly golf tourism, would imply more consumption of water resources. The assessments are finalized with implications on the future of a major component of diving tourism in the north Aegean - the red coral.Yayın İklim değişikliğinin Ergan Dağı kış sporları merkezi'nde yapay karlama kapasitesine etkisi(Erzincan Üniversitesi Turizm ve Otelcilik Meslek Yüksekokulu Yayınları, 2016-04) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Leventİklim değişikliği, dünyada 80 ülkeye yayılan 6.000’e yakın kayak alanı için öncelikli bir tehdit haline gelmiştir. Enlem ve yükselti avantajı bulunmayan kayak merkezlerinde iklim değişikliğinin etkileri şimdiden gözlemlenmeye başlamış, nispeten avantajlı merkezler için ise geleceğe yönelik senaryo çalışmaları hız kazanmıştır. Bu tür çalışmalar, bir yandan merkezlerin iklim değişikliği karşısındaki kırılganlık derecelerini belirlerken diğer yandan da uyum kapasitelerini incelemektedir. Kar sporları turizminin iklim değişikliğine uyumu konusunda ise öncelikli olarak yapay karlama ve taşınma gibi teknik alternatifler mercek altına alınmaktadır. Bu çalışma, son senelerde kış turizmi yatırımları hızla artan Türkiye’nin yeni kayak merkezlerinden Ergan Dağı’nın (Erzincan) yapay karlama kapasitesine yönelik bir senaryo analizi içermektedir. Bunun için, HadGEM2-ES genel dolaşım modeli RegCM4.4 bölgesel iklim modeli ile koşularak 10 km çözünürlüğe indirgenmiş, 1971-2000 ve iyimser RCP4.5 sera gazı konsantrasyonu senaryosuna göre 2021-2050 dönemleri için kayak merkezinin 1924 m rakımındaki yakın yüzey hava sıcaklığı ve bağıl nem değerleri elde edilmiştir. Bu iki değişkene dair değerlerden yapay karlama sınırlarını belirleyen yaş termometre sıcaklıkları hesaplanmış ve kayak merkezinin geçmiş ve gelecek yapay karlama kapasitesi 0,5 oC/hm düşüş oranı kullanılarak kayak pistlerinin farklı rakımlarına göre değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, yapay karlama kapasitesinde genel bir azalma eğilimi olacağı tespit edilmiş ve bu azalışın merkezin alçak kesimlerinde taban katmanı yapımını riske sokabileceği sonucuna varılmıştır.Yayın Impact of climate change on ski resorts in the Balkans the Middle East and the Caucasus a preliminary assessment for ski tourism in Northeast Turkey(Istanbul Policy Center, 2015-09-19) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent[No abstract available]
