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Yayın Projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices over CORDEX-MENA domain(MDPI AG, 2021-05) Öztürk, Tuğba; Saygılı Aracı, Fatma Sibel; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature-and precipitation-based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature-and precipitation-based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.Yayın Impact of climate change on natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacities, and wind conditions of ski Resorts in Northeast Turkey: a dynamical downscaling approach(Mdpi Ag, 2016-04) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventMany ski resorts worldwide are going through deteriorating snow cover conditions due to anthropogenic warming trends. As the natural and the artificially supported, i.e., technical, snow reliability of ski resorts diminish, the industry approaches a deadlock. For this reason, impact assessment studies have become vital for understanding vulnerability of ski tourism. This study considers three resorts at one of the rapidly emerging ski destinations, Northeast Turkey, for snow reliability analyses. Initially one global circulation model is dynamically downscaled by using the regional climate model RegCM4.4 for 1971-2000 and 2021-2050 periods along the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway. Next, the projected climate outputs are converted into indicators of natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacity, and wind conditions. The results show an overall decline in the frequencies of naturally snow reliable days and snowmaking capacities between the two periods. Despite the decrease, only the lower altitudes of one ski resort would face the risk of losing natural snow reliability and snowmaking could still compensate for forming the base layer before the critical New Year's week. On the other hand, adverse high wind conditions improve as to reduce the number of lift closure days at all resorts. Overall, this particular region seems to be relatively resilient against climate change.
