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Yayın Spatial extent of precipitation events: when big is getting bigger(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2022-03) Matte, Dominic; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Öztürk, TuğbaUsing a sub-selection of regional climate models at 0.11 degrees (approximate to 12 km) grid resolution from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble, we investigate how the spatial extent of areas associated with the most intensive daily precipitation events changes as a consequence of global warming. We address this by analysing three different warming levels: 1 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C. We find that not only does the intensity of such events increase, but their size will also change as a function of the warming: larger systems becomes more frequent and larger, while systems of lesser extent are reduced in numbers.Yayın Robustness of future atmospheric circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2022-09) Öztürk, Tuğba; Matte, Dominic; Christensen, Jens HesselbjergEuropean climate is associated with variability and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aim to investigate potential future change in circulation over Europe by using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11° grid mesh. In particular, we analyze future change in 500-hPa geopotential height (Gph), 500-hPa wind speed and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) addressing different warming levels of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for monthly mean 500-hPa Gph and 500-hPa wind speed. Results from the ensemble mean of individual models show a robust increase in 500-hPa Gph and MSLP in winter over Mediterranean and Central Europe, indicating an intensification of anticyclonic circulation. This circulation change emerges robustly in most simulations within the coming decade. There are also enhanced westerlies which transport warm and moist air to the Mediterranean and Central Europe in winter and spring. It is also clear that, models showing different responses to circulation depend very much on the global climate model ensemble member in which they are nested. For all seasons, particularly autumn, the ensemble mean is much more correlated with the end of the century than most of the individual models. In general, the emergence of a scaled pattern appears rather quickly.Yayın Future circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2020-05-08) Öztürk, Tuğba; Matte, Dominic; Christensen, Jens HesselbjergThe occurrence of extreme weather events and climate extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean region are believed to be associated with changes and variability in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. CMIP5 models exhibits a substantial decrease in mid-latitude mean storm track activity for summer under climate change for a variety of scenarios. In this work, we aim to investigate future change in summer circulation and its implication for summer temperature and precipitation extremes over Europe particularly focusing on the Southeastern Mediterranean. EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11° grid-mesh are used to analyze future climate projections addressing climate warming targets of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for the variables in concern in order to provide robust signals not to be dependent on climate sensitivity. Our focus in this study is on monthly mean geopotential height, winds at mid- and lower-troposphere as indicators of the simulated circulation changes.
