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Yayın Relations of 1994 and 2000 crises and their effects in Turkish capital markets(Işık Üniversitesi, 2002) Soykut Sarıca, Yeşim Pınar; Dew, James Kurt; Işık Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yöneticiler İçin İşletme Yönetimi Yüksek Lisans ProgramıTurkey, one of the most rapidly growing emerging market, is a heaven for investors with young population, dynamic private sector, and liberalised financial markets. In this respect, the question of "Why does the Turkish economy always face with either a crisis or a program for guiding her out of a crisis?", comes to minds. In the analysis period of this research, the Turkish economy has experienced with two major crisis in 1994 and 2000, which are called as "balance of payment crisis". In the period, before 1994 crisis had happened, although the tight monetary and fiscal policies were supposed to be implemented, neither of them were successfully executed. In the final crisis, Turkey launched a comprehensive and consistent disinflation program at the beginning of 2000 in order to stabilise the economy, which resulted as the abondenment of the crawling peg exchange rate regime- the anchor of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)- drawn back the economic reform program, brought instant and massive market devaluation, souring inflation, and tumbling financial markets. Today, Turkish government aim is to keep the window of Turkey open to all investors and widen it enough to ensure that the government meets its borrowing requirements, banks make profit in subsidising the government while the rest of the economy continues to function with reasonable rates on loans and attractive interest on deposits in order to proper functioning of the economy. This research makes a brief survey on the relationship between financial system, particularly in capital markets and economic crisis, in order to give a general background for the role of capital market in the case of Turkey by taking main macroeconomic indicators as the leading variables and their effects on ISE as the coincidental. In the first part of the research, the emerging history of Turkish Republic is viewed for making clear the path, which Turkey followed as a developing country. In addition, the development of financial markets in Turkey is historically reviewed. After this introductory information, the effects of the deregulation and industrialisation are discussed. The discussion reflects the impacts of liberalisation upon the Turkish economy and financial markets. In the second part of this research, 1994 crisis is explained, the most severe crisis ever lived in Turkey of all times. This part continues with the chronology of the 1994 crisis and is followed by economic indicators in terms of results of the economic crisis. In the third part of this research, Turkey's problems remained the same including the high inflation rate. Turkish economy was launched a comprehensive and consistent disinflation program again. This part is followed by January 2000 and February 2001 crisis, which became as the most severe and destructive crisis ever lived in Republic of Turkey's history, worse than 1994 crisis, and resulted as another burden on Turkish economy. In the fourth part of this research, Turkish Capital Markets' development is reviewed particularly and ISE is considered for the assessment of the role of the development of Turkish Capital Markets. Current part is followed by the condition of ISE during the period 1994 through 2000, including movements in the size and the volume of market with major events of daily market environment. In the last part of this research, both crises are examined by using the financial instruments' returns in comparison with the ISE, the most efficient capital market of Turkey. Interest rates, T-Bill, foreign exchange market, money supply, and industrial production monthly returns are considered for plotting the analysis successfully on the ISE. In addition, for determining the relation between the ISE and other variables one-by-one, each of these returns are graphed. According to the results of graphs, the relation between 1994 and 2000 crises are brought into open and the reasons for 2000 crisis' getting longer than 1994 crisis are tried to be achieved. Relevant data and information have been obtained from several books and public sources such as company document press releases' annual reports, governments' statistics, databases, especially Proquest, and finally state's official web-sites and organisations' web-sites for periodic data which has been cross checked and correlated with statistics issued by the several organisations. Finally, it should be noted that, the capital markets is the most important arm of financial sector for Turkey. The future of capital markets in Turkey are highly interrelated with the stabilisation and the development in the entire economy. A better comprehension of the economic development and stabilisation package after the crisis helped public to understand the vital importance of entire capital markets.
