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Yayın Impacts of climate change on precipitation climatology and variability in Turkey(Springer International Publishing Ag, 2020) Türkeş, Murat; Turp, M. Tufan; An, Nazan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this chapter, changes in seasonal precipitation climatology, extreme weather conditions, and aridity conditions of Turkey are evaluated for the period of 2021-2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971-2000 by using regional climate model simulations. Projections of future climate conditions are modeled by forcing Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.4 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The outputs of MPI-ESM-MR are used to generate 10 km resolution data by the double nesting method under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.4 in reproducing the observed climatology over Turkey is tested by using the output of the global climate model. The projection results show a strong decrease in precipitation for almost all parts of the domain according to the output of the regional model. The intensity of drought conditions is projected to increase. According to the projection results, more arid conditions are expected in the region for the near future. Therefore, drier than present climate conditions are projected to occur more intensely over Turkey.Yayın Simulating the climatology of extreme events for the Central Asia domain using the RegCM 4.0 regional climate model(Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2012-01-01) Altınsoy, Hamza; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this work, future changes in the frequency of the seasonal extreme climate events such as number, frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves (5 consecutive temperature days above the maximum temperature calendar day 90th percentiles, number of days per year that is above the same percentiles and greatest number of consecutive days above these percentiles) for the period of 2071–2100 over Central Asia (18.56 –70.13 East and 7.28 –142.4 North) with respect to the present period of 1971–2000 were studied in detail. Regional Climate Model RegCM 4.0 of Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with ECHAM5 forcing data was used for hindcast and forecast projection. This region will very likely be affected by heat waves in winter and spring seasons and heat wave frequency, intensity and duration will increase significantly over the Arabian Peninsula in summer. On the other hand, cold spells will not change as much as heat waves over the region in all seasons.
