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Yayın Modeling of near future air temperature and precipitation climatology of Turkey and surrounding regions(TÜDAV, 2015) Turp, M. Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. LeventProjected future changes in mean air temperature and precipitation for 2020 – 2050 were assessed with respect to the control period 1970 – 2000 via regional climate model simulations, using a regional climate model driven by three different global climate models, dynamically downscaled to 50 km for Turkey and surrounding regions, using the IPCC emission scenario outputs of global climate models.Yayın Assessment of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation over the Mediterranean region via multimodel ensemble mean of CMIP5 models(TÜDAV, 2015) Turp, M. Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. LeventA multi-model ensemble mean approach was followed in order to investigate the projected changes in near surface air temperatures and precipitation total over the Mediterranean region. Among sixty seven different models of thirty modeling groups all around the world participating in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), fourteen models were used. In this respect, we focused on two distinct scenarios (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three different future periods (i.e. 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100) to examine accurately the foreseen changes in two fundamental climate variables (near surface air temperature and precipitation total) for the Mediterranean region.Yayın Simulating the climatology of extreme events for the Central Asia domain using the RegCM 4.0 regional climate model(National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 2012-05) Altınsoy, Hamza; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent; Helmis, Konstantinos G.In this work, future changes in the frequency of the seasonal extreme climate events such as number, frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves (five consecutive temperature days above the maximum temperature calendar day 90th percentiles, number of days per year that is above the same percentiles and greatest number of consecutive days above these percentiles) for the period of 2071-2100 over Central Asia (18.56° – 70.13° East and 7.28° - 142.4° North) with respect to the present period of 1971-2000 were studied in detail. Regional Climate Model RegCM4.0 of Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with ECHAM5 forcing data was used for hindcast and forecast projection. This region will very likely be affected by heat waves in winter and spring seasons and heat wave frequency, intensity and duration will increase sig-nificantly over the Arabian Peninsula in summer. On the other hand, cold spells will not change as much as heat waves over the region in all seasons.Yayın Assessment of simulated changes in air temperature and precipitation over the mediterranean region via multi-model ensemble means of CMIP5 models(Middle East Technical University, 2014-06-23) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, a multi-model ensemble mean approach was conducted in order to investigate the projected changes in near surface air temperatures and precipitation totals over the Mediterranean region. Among sixty seven different models of thirty modeling groups all around the world participating in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), fourteen models were used. In this respect, we focused on two distinct scenarios (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three different future periods (i.e. 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100) to examine accurately the foreseen changes in two fundamental climate variables (near surface air temperature and precipitation total) for the Mediterranean region.Yayın Investigation of projected changes for near future air temperature and precipitation climatology of Turkey and surrounding regions by using REGCM4.3.5(Middle East Technical University, 2014-06-23) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, projected future changes for the period of 2020 – 2050 in mean air temperature andprecipitation climatology and year-to-year variability with respect to the control period of 1970 –2000 were investigated for the domain of Turkey via regional climate model simulations. In orderto investigate the projected changes in near future climate conditions, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was driven by three differentglobal climate models. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre, MPI-ESMMR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, GFDL-ESM2M global climatemodel of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid DynamicsLaboratory were dynamically downscaled to 50 km for Turkey and its surrounding region. The projections were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). According to the model results, there will be anincrease between 0.5 °C and 4 °C in mean air temperatures of Turkey for the period of 2020 –2050 with respect to the period of 1970 – 2000. This warming will be more severe in warm seasons than cold seasons. Changes varying from -0.4 mm/day to -1.2 mm/day in precipitationclimatology of Turkey are expected according to the regional climate model results.Yayın Simulations of future drought conditions in Central Asia CORDEX Region 8 by using RegCM 4.3.5(2015-01-14) Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this work, projected future changes in mean surface air temperature and precipitation climatology, inter-annual and seasonal variability and climatic aridity/humidity conditions for the period 2070-2100 over the large Central Asia region with respect to present climate (from 1970 to 2000) were simulated based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) was used for projections of future and present climate conditions. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX Region 8. We investigated the seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.3.5 in reproducing observed climatology over the domain of Central Asia by using 2 different global climate model outputs. For the future climatology of the domain, the regional model predicts relatively high warming in the warm season and northern part of the domain at cold season with a decrease in precipitation almost all part of the domain. The results of our study show that surface temperatures in the region will increase from 3 °C up to more than 7 °C on average according to the emission scenarios for the period 2070-2100 with respect to past period 1970-2000. Therefore, the projected warming and decrease in precipitation and also resultant or associated increased aridity and more frequent and severe drought events very likely adversely affect the ecological and socio-economic systems of this region, which is already characterised with mostly arid and semi-arid climate and ecosystems.Yayın Projections for changes in natural and technical snow reliability of a major Turkish ski resort by using RegCM4.3.5(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2014-05-02) Öztürk, Tuğba; Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventClimate change has been and increasingly will be a major threat to the ski tourism industry whose survival is highly dependent on existence of snow cover of sufficient depth and duration. The common knowledge requires that in order for a ski resort to be viable, it has to perform operations for at least 100 days in seven out of ten winters. For this matter, it is now even more usual for the ski resorts to adapt to this issue by technical snowmaking. In this study, projected future changes for the period of 2010-2040, 2040-2070, and 2070-2100 in air temperature, relative humidity, and snow depth climatology and variability with respect to the control period of 1970-2000 were assessed for the domain of a major ski resort in Turkey. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was used for projections of future and present climate conditions. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre, MPI-ESM-MR of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, GFDL-ESM2M of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory were downscaled to 10 km for the resort and its surrounding region. Both the projections and the downscaling were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC. The outputs on snow depth were used for a count of the changes on snow cover duration sufficient for skiing actitivies, signaling natural snow-reliability, whereas the outputs on air temperature and relative humidity were utilized for determination of wet-bulb temperatures. The latter measure was used to interpret the changes in the snowmaking capacity, in other words; technical snow-reliability, of the resort.Yayın Climate change versus 'security and peace' in the Mediterranean macroclimate region: are they correlated?(Coventry University, 2011-10-28) Türkeş, Murat; Öztürk, Tuğba; Altınsoy, HamzaClimate change, whether its global or regional scale, is one of the most significant and far-reaching challenges that the human societies living in the Earth’s surface have faced in the 21st century as it was in the 20th century. Consequently, the aim of this study is to scientifically assess impacts of the global and regional climate changes and variability including decreased precipitation amounts (drying) and increased air temperatures (warming) that would very likely cause to increase frequencies, durations and intensities of the drought events in the Mediterranean basin and Turkey, and associated problems and consequences with respect to the global, regional and national peace, prosperity and security issues and concerns.Yayın Investigation of high-resolution climate projections over Turkey and its surrounding regions using RegCM4.4(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2017-04-28) Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, projected future changes for the period of 2021-2050 in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and year-to-year variability with respect to the control period of 1971-2000 were investigated for the domain of Turkey and its surrounding regions via regional climate model simulations. In order to investigate the projected changes in near future climate conditions, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of ICTP (the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was driven by two different global climate models. HadGEM2-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were dynamically downscaled to 10 km for Turkey and its surrounding regions. The projections were performed based on the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).Yayın Future projections of air temperature and precipitation for the CORDEX-MENA domain by using RegCM4.3.5(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2015-04-17) Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, the projected changes for the periods of 2016 – 2035, 2046 – 2065, and 2081 – 2100 in the seasonal averages of air temperature and precipitation variables with respect to the reference period of 1981 - 2000 were examined for the Middle East and North Africa region. In this context, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was run by using two different global climate models. MPIESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and HadGEM2 of the Met Office Hadley Centre were dynamically downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX-MENA domain. The projections were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change).
