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Yayın RegCM4.3.5 Bölgesel iklim modelini kullanarak Türkiye ve çevresi bölgelerin yakın gelecekteki hava sıcaklığı ve yağış klimatolojileri için öngörülen değişikliklerin incelenmesi(Ege Üniversitesi, 2014-06-01) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventBu çalışmada 1970 – 2000 referans dönemi iklimine göre 2020 – 2050 dönemi için Türkiye’nin ortalama hava sıcaklığı ve yağış klimatolojilerinde öngörülen değişiklikler, bölgesel iklim modeli benzetimleri kullanılarak araştırıldı. Yakın gelecekteki iklim koşullarında öngörülen değişimleri incelemek için Uluslararası Teorik Fizik Merkezi’ne ait olan RegCM4.3.5 isimli bölgesel iklim modeli üç farklı küresel modelden yararlanılarak koşuldu. Max Planck Meteoroloji Enstitüsü’ne ait MPI-ESM-MR, Met Office Hadley Merkezi’ne ait HadGEM2 ve Amerikan Ulusal Okyanus ve Atmosfer Dairesi Jeofiziksel Akışkanlar Dinamiği Laboratuvarı’na ait GFDL-ESM2M modelleri Türkiye ve çevresi için dinamik olarak 50 km’ye alt ölçeklendirildi. Öngörüler, Hükümetlerarası İklim Değişikliği Paneli’nin (IPCC) RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 salım senaryolarına göre gerçekleştirildi. Model sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’de ortalama hava sıcaklıklarında 1970 – 2000 dönemine göre 2020 – 2050 döneminde 0.5 °C ile 4 °C arasında değişen artışlar olacaktır. Bu artış, sıcak mevsimlerde soğuk mevsimlere göre daha fazla olacaktır. Türkiye’nin yağış klimatolojisinde ise, bölgesel iklim modeli sonuçlarına göre, özellikle ülkenin Akdeniz ikliminin egemen olduğu batı ve güney bölgelerinde ve tüm mevsimlerde, yaklaşık 0.4 mm/gün ile 1.2 mm/gün arasında değişen belirgin yağış azalışlarının oluşması beklenir.Yayın RegCM4.3.5 İklim modeli benzetimleri kullanılarak Türkiye'nin gelecek hava sıcaklığı ve yağış klimatolojilerindeki değişikliklerin çözümlenmesi(Ege Üniversitesi, 2011-06-01) Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventBu çalışmada 1970-2000 dönemi günümüz iklimine göre 2070-2100 dönemi için Türkiye’nin ortalama hava sıcaklığı ve yağış klimatolojilerindeki değişikler, bölgesel iklim modeli simülasyonları (benzetim) kullanılarak öngörüldü. Günümüz ve gelecek iklim koşullarının model kestirimlerinin yapılması için, International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) bölgesel iklim modeli RegCM4.3.5 kullanıldı. Met Office Hadley Merkezi’nin HadGEM2 küresel iklim modeli, Türkiye ve çevresi için alt ölçeklendirme yöntemi ile çalışıldı. Gelecekte Türkiye’nin iklim değişkenlerinde oluşacak değişimleri incelemek için, küresel iklim modelinin RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 salım senaryoları çıktıları kullanıldı. Model çıktılarına göre, Türkiye’de ortalama hava sıcaklıklarında 3 °C ile 7 °C arasında değişen artışlar olacaktır. Sıcaklık artışı, sıcak mevsimlerde soğuk mevsimlere göre daha fazla olacaktır. Bölgesel iklim modeli sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’nin yağış klimatolojisinde ise, –0.8 mm/gün ile 1.2 mm/gün arasında değişen değişimler beklenmektedir.Yayın Simulation of temperature and precipitation climatology for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using RegCM 4.0(Inter-Research, 2012) Öztürk, Tuğba; Altınsoy, Hamza; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThe Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is a framework designed to coordinate international efforts on regional climate simulations. CORDEX domains encompass the majority of land areas of the world. Region 8 of the CORDEX basically covers Central Asia, with the corners of the domain at 54.76 degrees N, 11.05 degrees E; 56.48 degrees N, 139.13 degrees E; 18.34 degrees N, 42.41 degrees E; and 19.39 degrees N, 108.44 degrees E and with a horizontal resolution of 50 km. In the present study, the results of an experiment with the ICTP regional climate RegCM 4.0 model that was run for seasonal mean air temperature and precipitation total series are presented. The experiment consists of one simulation from 1989 to 2010 using ERA-Interim reanalysis data as the boundary condition, another simulation for the period 1970-2000 using the global climate model ECHAM5 A1B scenario data for forcing, and finally a simulation for the period 2070-2100 using the ECHAM5 A1B scenario projection data for forcing. Between these 3 simulations we determined the temperature and precipitation climatology obtained from RegCM 4.0 downscaling for Region 8 of the CORDEX framework. In spite of the diverse topography of the region, the temperature and precipitation climatology obtained by RegCM 4.0 from hindcast data captures the general characteristics of the climate of Central Asia. In winter, the warm temperature bias of the forcing data is slightly decreased by regional downscaling. The influences of the Indian monsoon system are well represented, as this region covers a large area towards the southern boundary of Region 8, even though the focus of this work was to capture the general characteristics of the whole region.Yayın Modeling of near future air temperature and precipitation climatology of Turkey and surrounding regions(TÜDAV, 2015) Turp, M. Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. LeventProjected future changes in mean air temperature and precipitation for 2020 – 2050 were assessed with respect to the control period 1970 – 2000 via regional climate model simulations, using a regional climate model driven by three different global climate models, dynamically downscaled to 50 km for Turkey and surrounding regions, using the IPCC emission scenario outputs of global climate models.Yayın Assessment of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation over the Mediterranean region via multimodel ensemble mean of CMIP5 models(TÜDAV, 2015) Turp, M. Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. LeventA multi-model ensemble mean approach was followed in order to investigate the projected changes in near surface air temperatures and precipitation total over the Mediterranean region. Among sixty seven different models of thirty modeling groups all around the world participating in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), fourteen models were used. In this respect, we focused on two distinct scenarios (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three different future periods (i.e. 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100) to examine accurately the foreseen changes in two fundamental climate variables (near surface air temperature and precipitation total) for the Mediterranean region.Yayın Simulating the climatology of extreme events for the Central Asia domain using the RegCM 4.0 regional climate model(National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 2012-05) Altınsoy, Hamza; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent; Helmis, Konstantinos G.In this work, future changes in the frequency of the seasonal extreme climate events such as number, frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves (five consecutive temperature days above the maximum temperature calendar day 90th percentiles, number of days per year that is above the same percentiles and greatest number of consecutive days above these percentiles) for the period of 2071-2100 over Central Asia (18.56° – 70.13° East and 7.28° - 142.4° North) with respect to the present period of 1971-2000 were studied in detail. Regional Climate Model RegCM4.0 of Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with ECHAM5 forcing data was used for hindcast and forecast projection. This region will very likely be affected by heat waves in winter and spring seasons and heat wave frequency, intensity and duration will increase sig-nificantly over the Arabian Peninsula in summer. On the other hand, cold spells will not change as much as heat waves over the region in all seasons.Yayın Assessment of simulated changes in air temperature and precipitation over the mediterranean region via multi-model ensemble means of CMIP5 models(Middle East Technical University, 2014-06-23) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, a multi-model ensemble mean approach was conducted in order to investigate the projected changes in near surface air temperatures and precipitation totals over the Mediterranean region. Among sixty seven different models of thirty modeling groups all around the world participating in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), fourteen models were used. In this respect, we focused on two distinct scenarios (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three different future periods (i.e. 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100) to examine accurately the foreseen changes in two fundamental climate variables (near surface air temperature and precipitation total) for the Mediterranean region.Yayın Investigation of projected changes for near future air temperature and precipitation climatology of Turkey and surrounding regions by using REGCM4.3.5(Middle East Technical University, 2014-06-23) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, projected future changes for the period of 2020 – 2050 in mean air temperature andprecipitation climatology and year-to-year variability with respect to the control period of 1970 –2000 were investigated for the domain of Turkey via regional climate model simulations. In orderto investigate the projected changes in near future climate conditions, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was driven by three differentglobal climate models. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre, MPI-ESMMR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, GFDL-ESM2M global climatemodel of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid DynamicsLaboratory were dynamically downscaled to 50 km for Turkey and its surrounding region. The projections were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). According to the model results, there will be anincrease between 0.5 °C and 4 °C in mean air temperatures of Turkey for the period of 2020 –2050 with respect to the period of 1970 – 2000. This warming will be more severe in warm seasons than cold seasons. Changes varying from -0.4 mm/day to -1.2 mm/day in precipitationclimatology of Turkey are expected according to the regional climate model results.Yayın Simulations of future drought conditions in Central Asia CORDEX Region 8 by using RegCM 4.3.5(2015-01-14) Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this work, projected future changes in mean surface air temperature and precipitation climatology, inter-annual and seasonal variability and climatic aridity/humidity conditions for the period 2070-2100 over the large Central Asia region with respect to present climate (from 1970 to 2000) were simulated based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) was used for projections of future and present climate conditions. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX Region 8. We investigated the seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.3.5 in reproducing observed climatology over the domain of Central Asia by using 2 different global climate model outputs. For the future climatology of the domain, the regional model predicts relatively high warming in the warm season and northern part of the domain at cold season with a decrease in precipitation almost all part of the domain. The results of our study show that surface temperatures in the region will increase from 3 °C up to more than 7 °C on average according to the emission scenarios for the period 2070-2100 with respect to past period 1970-2000. Therefore, the projected warming and decrease in precipitation and also resultant or associated increased aridity and more frequent and severe drought events very likely adversely affect the ecological and socio-economic systems of this region, which is already characterised with mostly arid and semi-arid climate and ecosystems.Yayın Investigation of high-resolution climate projections over Turkey and its surrounding regions using RegCM4.4(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2017-04-28) Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, projected future changes for the period of 2021-2050 in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and year-to-year variability with respect to the control period of 1971-2000 were investigated for the domain of Turkey and its surrounding regions via regional climate model simulations. In order to investigate the projected changes in near future climate conditions, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of ICTP (the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was driven by two different global climate models. HadGEM2-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were dynamically downscaled to 10 km for Turkey and its surrounding regions. The projections were performed based on the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
