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Yayın Investment behaviour and risk perception: an analysis for Turkish market(PressAcademia, 2023-07-30) Teker, Dilek; Teker, Suat; Demirel, EsinPurpose- The cognitive comprehension of financial indicators, risk aversion, risk perception, and investment behavior is defined as financial literacy. It's possible that a variety of characteristics, such as gender, age, income level, social standing, education, etc., will affect an investor's behavior. The purpose of this study is to highlight the behavior of investors in Turkish capital markets. The analysis is done on the results of two surveys, the first conducted in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the second in the first quarter of 2023. Methodology- This study's objective is to highlight investor behavior and risk perception in Turkish financial markets. In the most recent two consecutive quarters, the results of two surveys are analyzed and compared. Three sections comprise the surveys. A demographic question is asked in the first section. The second section asks questions concerning investment behavior, signs of financial stress, and confidence in regard to one's financial literacy. The final aspect contributes to the analysis of what people think of the Bitcoin market. In this study, Graphic analysis, Cronbach Alpha, Normality, and Mann-Whitney U tests are performed, respectively. First, the graphical analysis of the selected questions is made. Based on these graphs, the similarities and differences between the surveys are shown. Second, The reliability test is applied to the selected questions for the statistical modeling of the analysis. This test is determined as the Cronbach Alpha test. Third, the Normality test is applied to reveal which test to use in the next step. Two different tests are used for this analysis. These are the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk tests. Fourth, the Mann-Whitney U test is applied. At this stage, firstly, Mann-Whitney U and Wilcoxon W test statistics are examined. The ranks are calculated for each variable. Finally, the Mann-Whitney U test is applied, and the results are interpreted. Fifth, The results of the two surveys are compared. Findings- The findings show both similarities and differences among numerous variables. For instance, holding time is defined as the amount of time an investor holds an investment or as the time between purchasing it and selling it. Investors' risk aversion and financial literacy both influence the holding period. Riskier assets force investors to adjust their purchase or sell actions dynamically. The results show various portfolio diversification behaviours. While men prefer to start with foreign currency investments, women are more interested in making gold investments. Also, middle-aged investors invest more in cryptocurrencies and take more risks than younger investors. Conclusion- based upon the analysis, findings it may be concluded that respondents do differ in their investment preferences and risk-taking over the years. The findings show various portfolio diversification behaviors. While men prefer to invest in foreign currency, women are more interested in purchasing gold.Yayın Financial inclusion for selected OECD countries(PressAcademia, 2023-07-30) Teker, Dilek; Teker, Suat; Güzelsoy, HalitPurpose- Financial inclusion is defined as a process that ensures the ease of access, availability, and usage of the formal financial system for all members of an economy by emphasizing the use of accessibility and availability of financial services. A financial sector is measured and compared on four main features; debt is the size of financial institutions, access is the access and use of financial services by the users, efficiency is the efficiency in the provision of financial services, and stability is the stability in the provision of financial services. Financial inclusion, in short, is adults' access to and use of financial services. This study aims to measure the financial inclusion level for selected OECD countries from 2010-2021. Also, this study aims to estimate the effect of financial inclusion on economic growth and income inequality for selected countries. Methodology- The data used in this study cover a range of variables related to financial inclusion from various institutions, including the IMF-Financial Access Survey (IMF-FAS), the World Bank - World Development Indicators (WB-WDI), the World Bank - Global Financial Development Database (WB-GFDD) and the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID). These variables provide insights into the dimensions and determinants of financial inclusion and their impact on economic and social outcomes for selected OECD countries. In the study, we run panel data regressions for each group separately, using GDP per capita as the dependent variable to determine the impact of the Financial Inclusion Index on economic growth. We also construct two different models for each group of countries with and without the added control variables into the models. Findings- The analysis reveals that the effect of financial inclusion on economic growth is negative for all groups of countries. The impact is significant for Group 1 and Group 2. The magnitude of coefficients changes when we add control variables to the model. However, it does not change the significance level of the coefficients. The magnitude of the coefficients increases as countries’ per capita income increases. At the same time, the effect of financial inclusion on the GINI index is significant only in the model for Group 3 with control variables. The sign of the impact is negative. It implies that the GINI index decreases as the financial inclusion index increases. So, the effect of financial inclusion on income inequality is positive for countries in Group 3. Conclusion- The empirical results did not support the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth (GDP per capita). These results may be explained by advocating the financial sector's quick and fundamental digital transformation. Hence, the rules for availability, accessibility, and usage of financial products and system are completely changed in the past ten years. On the other hand, the relationship between financial inclusion and income inequality, measured by GINI Index, is consistent with the literature only for Group 3 countries (developing countries). The increase in the gap between rich-developed and developing countries may explain these results. An increase in financial inclusion still supports adjustments in income inequality in developing countries, but its effect is disappeared in developed countries in the last 12 years.Yayın The effects of policy rate announcements on the exchange rates(PressAcademia, 2024-01-15) Teker, Suat; Teker, Dilek; Demirel, EsinPurpose- Exchange rate is the value of a country's national currency against foreign national currencies. In this context, the exchange rate is considered an important macroeconomic indicator in evaluating the country's economy. The failure to control the exchange rate may damage economy significantly. It is possible to understand this from the 2001 crisis in Turkey, known as 'Black Wednesday', and the foreign Exchange crisis that started in Thailand in 1997 and affected many East Asian countries. Interest rate is one of the critical determinants affecting the exchange rates. Therefore, changes in interest rates are expected to affect the level of exchange rates. When there is an increase in interest rates, foreign capital flow is expected for that particular country. Hence, a decrease in exchange rates is expected for the excess capital flows. This study aims to analyze the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, considering the last 10 announcements of the interest policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye. These announcements are between January 19, 2023 and October 26, 2023. The study used the TL/USD exchange rates and 10-year government bond interest rates to measure the relationship in between these two variables. Methodology-The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between the dollar exchange rate and government bond interest rates for Turkiye. For this purpose, data is collected for the days when the last 10 policy rates published by the CBRT were announced. Data is obtained investing.com. Vector Autoregression (VAR) is used to measure the relationship in between two variables. The VAR system is based on empirical regularities embedded in the data. The VAR model may be viewed as a system of reduced form equations in which each of the endogenous variables is regressed on its own lagged values and the lagged values of all other variables in the system. Vector Autoregressive models are widely used in time series research to examine the dynamic relationships exist in between variables that interact with one another. In addition, VAR models are viable forecasting tools used often by macroeconomic or policy -making institutions. . In this study first, the stationary levels of the variables are determined by using Unit Root Test. Second, pre-tests of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and normality are conducted for the validity of the VAR model. Third, the short-term relationship between variables is tested by using VAR Granger Causality Test. Fourth, VAR analysis is utilized by applying Impulse-Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition Analysis . And finally, the long-term relationship between variables is tested by using Johansen Cointegration Test. Vector Autoregressionmodel is employed in this study. Findings- According to the results of Granger Causality test, government bond interest rates strongly affect the changes of exchange rate. However, there is no causality from exhange rates to interest rates. Therefore, the changes of interest rates are the main determinants of the changes of exchange rates in this short period. The results of Impulse-Response Test show that an unexpected shock (an unexpected increase) in government bond interest rates affects the exchange rates and increases it significantly. More, an unexpected increase in the exchange rates causes the interest rates on government bond to increase. The results of the variance decomposition test show that 50% of the change in the variance of the exchange rates in the first period is explained by changes in bond interest while 30% of the change in the variance of bond interest rates is explained by the changes in exchange rates. The results of Johansen cointegration test support that there is a stable long-term relationship between dollar exchange rates and government bond interest rates. Conclusion-This study focuses on the relationship between government bond interest rates and the dollar exchange rates in Turkiye for the last 10 policy interest rates announcements by Cenral Bank of Turkiye. In summary, the changes in interest rates on bonds affect the changes in exchange rates more. Data for the days that the CBRT issued the last ten policy rates is gathered for this purpose. The association between two variables is measured using Vector Autoregression (VAR). According to overall results, the changes in interest rates on bonds affect the changes in exchange rates more.Yayın A measurement of dollarization(PressAcademia, 2023-02-01) Teker, Suat; Teker, Dilek; Güzelsoy, HalitPurpose- Dollarization refers to the use of foreign currency instead of domestic currency by citizens as a result of macroeconomic instabilities. Generally, due to the instability caused by inflation, the local currency loses its functions as a unit of account, a store of value, and in the last stage, a medium of exchange. Partial dollarization is the fulfillment of any of the three functions of money by a foreign currency. The purpose of this study is to measure the dollarization level of the Turkish economy between 2000 and 2022 (a 23-year period). This study employs the most comprehensive definition of portfolios of Turkish Lira and foreign currency to measure the degree of asset and liability dollarization. This study measures the dollarization degree of the Turkish economy by using the composite dollarization index developed by Reinhart et al., (2003). Methodology- The composite dollarization index based on the definition by Reinhart et al., 2003, has two components; asset dollarization and liability dollarization. This study measures the level of dollarization by using Reinhart's definition of the Turkish economy between 2000 and 2022. We construct the asset dollarization as a ratio of the foreign currency portfolio to the total portfolio. Liability dollarization is defined as the sum of the ratio of foreign currency credit to the total credit, the ratio of the domestic debt in foreign currency to the total domestic debt, and the ratio of total external debt to the GDP. The composite dollarization index is the sum of asset dollarization and liability dollarization. Findings- The dollarization in bank deposits rose to 57%in 2001 and then dropped to 27% in 2010. The dollarization in bank deposits has started to rise again since 2013. The increase in dollarization in bank deposits has accelerated since 2021. It reached 70% by the middle of 2022. Asset dollarization has a similar path to the dollarization in bank deposits. The level of the asset dollarization is generally lower than the level of the deposit dollarization for all years examined. The liability dollarization also follows a similar path. As the degree of asset dollarization increases, the degree of liability dollarization also increases. Finally, the composite dollarization index has been rapidly increasing since 2010. Conclusion- As discussed extensively in the literature, the degree of dollarization is an important indicator of a healthy economy. The literature supports that there is a strong link between the degree of dollarization and macroeconomic indicators. When economic instabilities are on the screen, the use of a stable foreign currency instead of domestic currency increases. Some previous studies measured the dollarization by considering only asset dollarization or only liability dollarization may have deficiencies in the comprehensive definition of dollarization. Therefore, a comprehensive measurement of dollarization should better consider both the assets and liabilities of the balance sheets. The empirical findings of this study indicate that the degree of dollarization has been increasing since 2013 and the rate of increase accelerated especially after 2021 based on the comprehensive dollarization index constructed.Yayın Financial inclusion and economic development: Turkey and Greece(PressAcademia, 2023-02-01) Teker, Suat; Teker, Dilek; Güzelsoy, HalitPurpose- Financial inclusion means individuals and businesses have access to useful and affordable financial products and services to deliver their needs in a responsible and sustainable way. A financial sector is measured and compared on four main features; debt is the size of financial institutions, access is the access and use of financial services by the users, efficiency is the efficiency in the provision of financial services, and stability is the stability in the provision of financial services. The purpose of this paper is to measure the level of financial inclusion of Turkey and Greece from 2000 to 2020 and compare its relationship with the economic growth and income inequality of both countries. Methodology- The World Bank data covering the 2000-2020 period is extracted from Turkey and Greece from the world bank report. The whole financial system for both countries is defined as a combination of banks, nonbanks financial institutions, and stock exchange markets. The related indicators for each of the subsectors of the financial system are determined for banks, nonbanks financial institutions, and stock exchange markets. Thus, 32 indicators for banks, 6 indicators for nonbanks, and 16 indicators for stock exchange markets are determined for the financial inclusion index. All indicators are in percentages. All individual indicators are summed for the computation of subsectoral indexes and then the growth rate in each subsectoral indexes are computed. The growth rates of each subsectoral index are summed and weighted by the subsectoral asset sizes or trading volüme. Finally, the causal relationship between the financial inclusion index, Gini coefficient, Poverty Headcount ratio, and GDP per capita was examined. Findings- The average growth rate for the financial inclusion index for the 21 years is 2,83% for Turkey and 0,97% for Greece. According to the analysis, we found that the financial inclusion index Granger-cause GDP per capita, Gini index Granger-cause financial inclusion index and there is a bidirectional relationship between the financial inclusion index and Poverty Headcount ratio for Turkey. On the other hand, there is a bidirectional relationship between GDP per capita and the financial inclusion index and a bidirectional relationship between the financial inclusion index and the Poverty Headcount ratio for Greece. Conclusion- Financial inclusion simply means a larger size of financial institutions and a variety of financial products and services available for the use of adult individuals, businesses, and governmental agencies. Economic growth is supported and accelerated by an increase in financial inclusion. The empirical analysis supports the literature that the growth in the financial inclusion index enhances a higher growth in GDP and a much higher growth in GDP per capita for both Turkey and Greece. The project titled “Istanbul as an International Financial Center” may easily improve the level of financial inclusion in Turkey.Yayın Financial sustainability of higher education system(PressAcademia, 2024-01-15) Eşkinat, Ali; Teker, SuatPurpose- Financial sustainability is vital for the higher education systems in the global competitive atmosphere of the world of 2020s. This paper reviews a comparative analysis between the budgets and expenditures of the Turkish and British higher education systems, beside a view on those of the OECD countries. This paper intends to clarify Turkish higher education system’s difficulties in financial sustainability to provide required academic standards due to increasing costs and number of students versus the economic strength of significant actors such as the United Kingdom in the globalized competition. For this reason, this paper advocates cost advantages provided by the application of effective online education model to acquire financial sustainability clarifying the rise of digital universities by the 2030s. Methodology-. The study employs a literature review aiming to perform a comparative analysis on the financial structures of Turkish and British higher education systems. Moreover, OECD data were also reflected. The aim was to identify the possible difficulties of Turkish higher education system in financial sustainability to provide required academic standards in the competitive global area and find a contemporary solution. Findings- The analysis reveals that the Turkish higher education system have disadvantages in providing financial sustainability under the conditions of increasing costs as well as number of students in order to reach the required standards in the global league. Notably, it is clearly seen that efective application of online education strategy is an opportunity to balance revenues and expenditures in this way. As a matter of the fact, the effect of digital transformation era and the attitude of Generation Z students have already prepared this atmosphere. Conclusion-. Governments highly financed higher education systems after 20th Century. However, financial problems emerged due to increasing number of students and increasing costs. Eventhough the budgets had continuously been increased, Turkish higher education system have realized lower expenditures in the OECD average. Problems in financial sustainability to provide required academic standards have clearly been noticed in the global competitive atmosphere while compared with the example of the United Kingdom. Over the Covid19 crisis, universities successfully implemented hybrid education around the world increasing the effect of online systems forced by Generation Z’s perspective on embracing Digital Technologies. So, effective application of online education model appeared as a new opportunity for Turkish higher education system to provide financial sustainability decreasing costs and also efficiently compete in the global area. Indeed, blended learning in traditional universities and inevitable growth of digital higher education institutions named as University 5.0 will be seen after 2030s.Yayın International trade between Turkey and China(PressAcademia, 2023-02-01) Teker, Suat; Teker, Dilek; Orman, IrmakPurpose- This study examines the development of China – Turkey international trade with the comparison of macroeconomic trends, global trade developments, bilateral agreements. Also, this study analyses the expected effects of de-globalization, broken global value chains after the Covid19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Methodology- The study provides a macroconomic background for international trade developments between 2000 – 2021, focusing on China and Turkey. By comparing and examining world trade developments, the study sets a numerical background for potential future developments. Findings- The analysis reveals that global developments, changing power structures and trade flows has been re-shaping the world economic outlook and causing few debates around the continuity of “globalization”. Rising political nationalism, repercussions of Covid 19 pandemic, supply/demand mismatches, Brexit and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shifted international trade paradigms and Great Powers that has been the cause and pioneers of globalization are now forming new partnerships. As one of the largest and most dominant players in global world trade, China has a pivotal role in determining the changing paradigms of international trade. Turkey also plays a critical role in current re-positioning of the world trade not because of the share it has from international trade like United States, European Union, China or Russia but because of the geopolitical importance it has and because of the bilateral relations it builds with other Great Powers. Conclusion- Turkey’s bilateral trade volume has been growing with China and is set to grow further with all the economic and politic steps taken. Covid19 pandemic and the shutdowns have shown to the world the importance of free trade, uninterrupted supply chains and global stability. The pandemic restrictions are finally over but the effects on worldwide economy and politic instability caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have forced new economic alliances. Turkey, with its proximity to European markets and cheap labor, is becoming a new base of production for international players. Numbers prove that bilateral economic relations have grown with China, but the growth has been mostly fueled by exports from China, causing the trade gap to become wider. As Asia is becoming to be the center of global economic growth, it is certain that Turkey’s international trade with China and it’s partners will grow.Yayın Gender differences in risk perception and investment behavior(PressAcademia, 2023-02-01) Teker, Dilek; Teker, Suat; Demirel, EsinPurpose- Gender differences in investment behavior have been reported by various studies. Behavioral investing seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and investing. Behavioral finance is becoming more predominant in the financial and investment industry. The general concept of behavioral finance suggests that investors do not necessarily make rational investment decisions. Many results of behavioral finance studies show that men and women have different strengths and weaknesses in terms of skills required for investment management. This study focuses on the role of gender in risk perception and investment behavior, with a sample size of 288 respondents. In other words, the aim of the research is to reveal whether there is a difference in investment preferences between men and women. It is investigated whether the gender factor affects investment decision-making behavior. Using an experimental finance approach, the relationship between gender diversity and investment decisions is examined. Methodology- This study focuses on the role of gender in risk perception and investment behavior, with a sample size of 288 respondents. Gender differences in investment behavior have been reported by various studies. Behavioral investing seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and investing. Behavioral finance is becoming more predominant in the financial and investment industry. The general concept of behavioral finance suggests that investors do not necessarily make rational investment decisions. In accordance with the aim of the research, to reveal whether there is a difference in investment choices between men and women, the investment differences between the genders are shown using the graphic method in this study. Then, the normality test and Mann-Whitney U test were applied by using 288 respondents, respectively. Findings- According to the graphic method results it is found that women generally prefer to invest between 10% and 25% of their monthly income in financial markets. T cryptocurrency market is riskier than the stock market for both women and men. Women experience more stress than men at the thought of losing money because of their investment choices. The Cronbach Alpha coefficient for estimating the reliability of the scale employed for respondents’ investment preference was found to be 0.701. The results of data processing obtained by the value of the Kolmogorov-Simirnov significant which means the data were not normally distributed residuals. According to Mann-Whitney U test results, it is underlined that the gender factor differs according to the following variables based on 95% significance level: Conclusion- Survey with different aspects of questions focus on investors’ risk perception. “How often do you check your investments?”; “What is your approximate holding time of an investment instrument?”; “What percentage of your monthly income would you prefer to invest in financial markets?”; “The thought of losing money because of my investment choices is stressed me out”; “Have you ever invested in Cryptocurrencies?”; “What is the most suitable option for your knowledge of the cryptocurrency market?”. It is concluded that there is a significant difference between gender and investment preference.Yayın Turkiye as a regional hub(PressAcademia, 2024-01-15) Dilek, Teker; Teker, Suat; Orman, IrmakPurpose- This study examines Türkiye's strategic importance and potential to serve as a pivotal regional hub for businesses. The study alsoinvestigates the various fields of businesses for being a potential hub. A review of common concerns that needs further developments are analysed. Methodology- The study utilizes an analytical literature survey and investigates the various business fields for becoming a regional hub. Findings- Turkiye is the 7th largest economy by GDP in Europe by IMF among 22 countries for the year 2022. Turkiye is ranked as the 1st in ease of setting and welcoming categories at Expat Explorer Index, and 7th in the world in the year 2019. More, Turkish international airports serve for 342 direct flights for 128 countries with Turkish Airlines and proximity to these markets with a total GDP of 46 trillion USD within 4 hours flight. Conclusion- Turkiye's unique geographical position bridges Europe and Asia providing a natural gateway between the East and the West. Proximity to major markets enhances its appeal as a strategic center for trade and commerce. Ongoing investments in infrastructure, including transportation networks and logistics facilities, are positioning Türkiye as a key hub for the efficient movement of goods and services. Modern ports, airports, and road networks facilitate seamless connectivity within the region. Türkiye's growing economy attracts foreign investments, fostering the development of financial services and encouraging multinational companies to establish reg ional headquarters.Yayın Digital era for universities: soon or far(PressAcademia, 2023-07-30) Eşkinat, Ali; Teker, SuatPurpose- Over the Covid-19 crises, most universities keep increasing the use of hybrid model at various levels in all disciplines in their education system forced by the market demand. This paper reviews the evolution of university generations from university 1.0 to university 4.0 using a historical point of view. This paper intends to clarify whether digital era for universities, namely University 5.0, is soon or far advocating that a large number of completely digital universities may breakout and reach everywhere in the world with no barriers of language, time and locations, and competing with local and traditional universities in all sense after year 2030. Methodology- The study employs an online survey via convenience sampling based on quantitative research method. Employers/Managers, Academics and formal University Students were selected as three target population group located all around Turkiye. The aim was to test the 5 hypotheses of this study to clarify the time of digital era for universities. Findings- The analysis reveals that the 5 hypotheses are accepted and seen as valid. The empirical results show a significant difference between the gender variable and the importance given to digital education. Moreover, there was a significant difference in the mean scores of the significance of digitalization and the importance given to digital education based on education level variable. Then, there were differences in the significance of digitalization and the importance given to digital education concerning the social status variable in the collected data. Notably, a linear and significant relationship was revealed between the importance given to digital education by participants and the importance they attributed to digitalization. Furthermore, a linear and significant relationship was found between the importance given to digital education and the importance given to university education. Under these circumstances, the results reveal that digital education is concerned as a fact of digital era and higher education institutions are not immune of this transformation. Conclusion- Based upon the analysis, it can be concluded that the traditional university system will be evolved into a digital university system in a not-too-distant future. In other words, traditional prestigious universities are expected to continue whereas digital universities appear as destructive competitors. For this reason, it may be argued that universities will increase to provide hybrid model education depending on the market demand until 2030, whereby it will be applied at different rates in education disciplines, such as of medicine, engineering, social sciences and many others. After 2030 traditional universities will continue to use blended learning whereas digital higher education institutions will start their inevitable growth.
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