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Yayın Investment behaviour and risk perception: an analysis for Turkish market(PressAcademia, 2023-07-30) Teker, Dilek; Teker, Suat; Demirel, EsinPurpose- The cognitive comprehension of financial indicators, risk aversion, risk perception, and investment behavior is defined as financial literacy. It's possible that a variety of characteristics, such as gender, age, income level, social standing, education, etc., will affect an investor's behavior. The purpose of this study is to highlight the behavior of investors in Turkish capital markets. The analysis is done on the results of two surveys, the first conducted in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the second in the first quarter of 2023. Methodology- This study's objective is to highlight investor behavior and risk perception in Turkish financial markets. In the most recent two consecutive quarters, the results of two surveys are analyzed and compared. Three sections comprise the surveys. A demographic question is asked in the first section. The second section asks questions concerning investment behavior, signs of financial stress, and confidence in regard to one's financial literacy. The final aspect contributes to the analysis of what people think of the Bitcoin market. In this study, Graphic analysis, Cronbach Alpha, Normality, and Mann-Whitney U tests are performed, respectively. First, the graphical analysis of the selected questions is made. Based on these graphs, the similarities and differences between the surveys are shown. Second, The reliability test is applied to the selected questions for the statistical modeling of the analysis. This test is determined as the Cronbach Alpha test. Third, the Normality test is applied to reveal which test to use in the next step. Two different tests are used for this analysis. These are the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk tests. Fourth, the Mann-Whitney U test is applied. At this stage, firstly, Mann-Whitney U and Wilcoxon W test statistics are examined. The ranks are calculated for each variable. Finally, the Mann-Whitney U test is applied, and the results are interpreted. Fifth, The results of the two surveys are compared. Findings- The findings show both similarities and differences among numerous variables. For instance, holding time is defined as the amount of time an investor holds an investment or as the time between purchasing it and selling it. Investors' risk aversion and financial literacy both influence the holding period. Riskier assets force investors to adjust their purchase or sell actions dynamically. The results show various portfolio diversification behaviours. While men prefer to start with foreign currency investments, women are more interested in making gold investments. Also, middle-aged investors invest more in cryptocurrencies and take more risks than younger investors. Conclusion- based upon the analysis, findings it may be concluded that respondents do differ in their investment preferences and risk-taking over the years. The findings show various portfolio diversification behaviors. While men prefer to invest in foreign currency, women are more interested in purchasing gold.Yayın Financial inclusion for selected OECD countries(PressAcademia, 2023-07-30) Teker, Dilek; Teker, Suat; Güzelsoy, HalitPurpose- Financial inclusion is defined as a process that ensures the ease of access, availability, and usage of the formal financial system for all members of an economy by emphasizing the use of accessibility and availability of financial services. A financial sector is measured and compared on four main features; debt is the size of financial institutions, access is the access and use of financial services by the users, efficiency is the efficiency in the provision of financial services, and stability is the stability in the provision of financial services. Financial inclusion, in short, is adults' access to and use of financial services. This study aims to measure the financial inclusion level for selected OECD countries from 2010-2021. Also, this study aims to estimate the effect of financial inclusion on economic growth and income inequality for selected countries. Methodology- The data used in this study cover a range of variables related to financial inclusion from various institutions, including the IMF-Financial Access Survey (IMF-FAS), the World Bank - World Development Indicators (WB-WDI), the World Bank - Global Financial Development Database (WB-GFDD) and the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID). These variables provide insights into the dimensions and determinants of financial inclusion and their impact on economic and social outcomes for selected OECD countries. In the study, we run panel data regressions for each group separately, using GDP per capita as the dependent variable to determine the impact of the Financial Inclusion Index on economic growth. We also construct two different models for each group of countries with and without the added control variables into the models. Findings- The analysis reveals that the effect of financial inclusion on economic growth is negative for all groups of countries. The impact is significant for Group 1 and Group 2. The magnitude of coefficients changes when we add control variables to the model. However, it does not change the significance level of the coefficients. The magnitude of the coefficients increases as countries’ per capita income increases. At the same time, the effect of financial inclusion on the GINI index is significant only in the model for Group 3 with control variables. The sign of the impact is negative. It implies that the GINI index decreases as the financial inclusion index increases. So, the effect of financial inclusion on income inequality is positive for countries in Group 3. Conclusion- The empirical results did not support the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth (GDP per capita). These results may be explained by advocating the financial sector's quick and fundamental digital transformation. Hence, the rules for availability, accessibility, and usage of financial products and system are completely changed in the past ten years. On the other hand, the relationship between financial inclusion and income inequality, measured by GINI Index, is consistent with the literature only for Group 3 countries (developing countries). The increase in the gap between rich-developed and developing countries may explain these results. An increase in financial inclusion still supports adjustments in income inequality in developing countries, but its effect is disappeared in developed countries in the last 12 years.Yayın The effects of policy rate announcements on the exchange rates(PressAcademia, 2024-01-15) Teker, Suat; Teker, Dilek; Demirel, EsinPurpose- Exchange rate is the value of a country's national currency against foreign national currencies. In this context, the exchange rate is considered an important macroeconomic indicator in evaluating the country's economy. The failure to control the exchange rate may damage economy significantly. It is possible to understand this from the 2001 crisis in Turkey, known as 'Black Wednesday', and the foreign Exchange crisis that started in Thailand in 1997 and affected many East Asian countries. Interest rate is one of the critical determinants affecting the exchange rates. Therefore, changes in interest rates are expected to affect the level of exchange rates. When there is an increase in interest rates, foreign capital flow is expected for that particular country. Hence, a decrease in exchange rates is expected for the excess capital flows. This study aims to analyze the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, considering the last 10 announcements of the interest policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye. These announcements are between January 19, 2023 and October 26, 2023. The study used the TL/USD exchange rates and 10-year government bond interest rates to measure the relationship in between these two variables. Methodology-The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between the dollar exchange rate and government bond interest rates for Turkiye. For this purpose, data is collected for the days when the last 10 policy rates published by the CBRT were announced. Data is obtained investing.com. Vector Autoregression (VAR) is used to measure the relationship in between two variables. The VAR system is based on empirical regularities embedded in the data. The VAR model may be viewed as a system of reduced form equations in which each of the endogenous variables is regressed on its own lagged values and the lagged values of all other variables in the system. Vector Autoregressive models are widely used in time series research to examine the dynamic relationships exist in between variables that interact with one another. In addition, VAR models are viable forecasting tools used often by macroeconomic or policy -making institutions. . In this study first, the stationary levels of the variables are determined by using Unit Root Test. Second, pre-tests of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and normality are conducted for the validity of the VAR model. Third, the short-term relationship between variables is tested by using VAR Granger Causality Test. Fourth, VAR analysis is utilized by applying Impulse-Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition Analysis . And finally, the long-term relationship between variables is tested by using Johansen Cointegration Test. Vector Autoregressionmodel is employed in this study. Findings- According to the results of Granger Causality test, government bond interest rates strongly affect the changes of exchange rate. However, there is no causality from exhange rates to interest rates. Therefore, the changes of interest rates are the main determinants of the changes of exchange rates in this short period. The results of Impulse-Response Test show that an unexpected shock (an unexpected increase) in government bond interest rates affects the exchange rates and increases it significantly. More, an unexpected increase in the exchange rates causes the interest rates on government bond to increase. The results of the variance decomposition test show that 50% of the change in the variance of the exchange rates in the first period is explained by changes in bond interest while 30% of the change in the variance of bond interest rates is explained by the changes in exchange rates. The results of Johansen cointegration test support that there is a stable long-term relationship between dollar exchange rates and government bond interest rates. Conclusion-This study focuses on the relationship between government bond interest rates and the dollar exchange rates in Turkiye for the last 10 policy interest rates announcements by Cenral Bank of Turkiye. In summary, the changes in interest rates on bonds affect the changes in exchange rates more. Data for the days that the CBRT issued the last ten policy rates is gathered for this purpose. The association between two variables is measured using Vector Autoregression (VAR). According to overall results, the changes in interest rates on bonds affect the changes in exchange rates more.Yayın Why invest globally in family firms?(PressAcademia, 2022-07-30) Teker, Suat; Teker, Dilek; Demirel, EsinPurpose- Family firms have a significant economic role in many countries around the world. Family firms make a significant contribution to World GDP and employ a significant part of the global workforce. The scope of this study covers the top 25 largest and publicly owned family firms announced by Ernst & Young’s 2021 Report for Family Businesses. These 25 family firms generated more than 2 trillion USD and employed 6.5 million in 2021. This empirical study aims to investigate the excess stock returns of family firms over the related country stock market indexes and the risks (betas) for the period between 2002 and 2021. Therefore, this study explores the question of “why invest globally in family firms and whether this investment pays off with higher returns and less risk”. Methodology- The World's Largest Family Companies" list is published every other two years by Ernst & Young and the last issue was published in 2021. The world’s largest family companies list includes both private and publicly owned family firms. This study employs 25 world’s largest family firms after the exclusion of privately held family firms. The monthly stock prices of family firms, related country stock market index values, and global stock market index values are obtained from Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters) database for the period between 2002 and 2021 (20 years). Therefore, a total of 9120 observations are extracted for this empirical study. Eviews-10 is utilized for all econometric analysis. Findings- This study investigates whether an individual or intuitional investor can earn more than the average return of the stock markets by investing in publicly traded family firms meanwhile exposing less risk. The empricial results reveal that Maersek shows 354% (beta of 1.18) excess return over the 20 year period and followed by Hanwha with a 335% (beta of 0.69) excess return. Later, all family firms are grouped based on country of headquartered and 7 country portfolios are formed. The highest excess returns are provided by South Koean portfolio (an excess return of 189% with a beta of 0.83) and it is followed by Indian portfolio (an excess return of 174% with a beta of 1.0). Finaly, a best performer portfolio is formed by the 10 family firms with highest excess returns. This portfolio provides a 131% excess return with a beta of 1.18 over 20-year peirod. Conclusion- The empirical results show that the individual firm returns and portfolio returns of family firms are higher than the returns of the stock market indexes. Those who invest in family businesses get higher returns with less risk. Investments in publicly traded family firms pay off.Yayın A measurement of dollarization(PressAcademia, 2023-02-01) Teker, Suat; Teker, Dilek; Güzelsoy, HalitPurpose- Dollarization refers to the use of foreign currency instead of domestic currency by citizens as a result of macroeconomic instabilities. Generally, due to the instability caused by inflation, the local currency loses its functions as a unit of account, a store of value, and in the last stage, a medium of exchange. Partial dollarization is the fulfillment of any of the three functions of money by a foreign currency. The purpose of this study is to measure the dollarization level of the Turkish economy between 2000 and 2022 (a 23-year period). This study employs the most comprehensive definition of portfolios of Turkish Lira and foreign currency to measure the degree of asset and liability dollarization. This study measures the dollarization degree of the Turkish economy by using the composite dollarization index developed by Reinhart et al., (2003). Methodology- The composite dollarization index based on the definition by Reinhart et al., 2003, has two components; asset dollarization and liability dollarization. This study measures the level of dollarization by using Reinhart's definition of the Turkish economy between 2000 and 2022. We construct the asset dollarization as a ratio of the foreign currency portfolio to the total portfolio. Liability dollarization is defined as the sum of the ratio of foreign currency credit to the total credit, the ratio of the domestic debt in foreign currency to the total domestic debt, and the ratio of total external debt to the GDP. The composite dollarization index is the sum of asset dollarization and liability dollarization. Findings- The dollarization in bank deposits rose to 57%in 2001 and then dropped to 27% in 2010. The dollarization in bank deposits has started to rise again since 2013. The increase in dollarization in bank deposits has accelerated since 2021. It reached 70% by the middle of 2022. Asset dollarization has a similar path to the dollarization in bank deposits. The level of the asset dollarization is generally lower than the level of the deposit dollarization for all years examined. The liability dollarization also follows a similar path. As the degree of asset dollarization increases, the degree of liability dollarization also increases. Finally, the composite dollarization index has been rapidly increasing since 2010. Conclusion- As discussed extensively in the literature, the degree of dollarization is an important indicator of a healthy economy. The literature supports that there is a strong link between the degree of dollarization and macroeconomic indicators. When economic instabilities are on the screen, the use of a stable foreign currency instead of domestic currency increases. Some previous studies measured the dollarization by considering only asset dollarization or only liability dollarization may have deficiencies in the comprehensive definition of dollarization. Therefore, a comprehensive measurement of dollarization should better consider both the assets and liabilities of the balance sheets. The empirical findings of this study indicate that the degree of dollarization has been increasing since 2013 and the rate of increase accelerated especially after 2021 based on the comprehensive dollarization index constructed.Yayın Venture capital and business angels: Turkish case(Elsevier Science BV, 2016) Teker, Suat; Teker, DilekVenture capital (VC) may be defined as a support to entrepreneurial talents and appetite by turning ideas and basic science into products and services which are expected to envy the world. Although venture capitalists and business angels supply external funding for risky investments, the aspects of venture capitalists and business angels are different approaching the investment candidates. Business angels in the last decade have become undispansible players providing external capital for risky start-ups and contributing technological advancements and economic growth. Business angels could be either private wealth individuals or institutional venture capitalists. Private angels invest their own money that's why their invested capacity are limited while venture capitalists invest others'money with an extensive source. This research examines the the way of doing business for venture capitalists and business angels. Furthermore, venture capital market and business angels are reviewed for the Turkish case.Yayın Digital transformation and universities(PressAcademia, 2022-07-30) Teker, Suat; Teker, Dilek; Tavman, Emine BaşakPurpose- This study aims to examine how digitalization has affected and changed higher education. It focuses on the current situation of universities and their current processes and what they need to do to become digital. It aims to present a roadmap for universities to integrate and organize these important changes into their strategies by examining the digital transformation that affects the vision of universities. Methodology- The study employs a literature review using secondary data analysis. Findings- The analysis reveals that the role of universities in many aspects such as society and economy has changed and is expected to change disruptively over the next decade. Universities need to make a differentiation through emerging business models in such a competitive higher education sector. Higher education institutions have to adapt to technological changes for sustainabilty. The pandemic dramatically accelerated the pace of technological adoption worldwide. The drivers of digital transformation in universiteis can be summarized as the increase compteteiveness, user experience and agility while reduction in operating expenses. Conclusion- It may be concluded that a university should be part of present technological trends and include digitalization in their strategies to be competitive in the future. Universities need to focus mainly on exploring more innovative measures to create technology development centres through research to deal with skills shortages. Universities should support those academics who lead the improvement of digital skills and innovative teaching methods, promote digital literacy in the academia and encourage the use of learning platforms. It is important to set a clear policy to adopt digital age in higher education. Universities will be competing globally for students, academic staff and funding. Adoption and implementation of new technologies in universities are inevitable.Yayın Whether development indices affect economic growth: a cross-country analysis(Elsevier Science BV, 2016-11-23) Teker, Suat; Güner, AyşegülThis study aims to examine the relationship between economic growth and highly featured development indices using a cross sectional data of 12 countries from both developed and developing world between the years 2000 and 2013. The indices of corruption, democracy, freedom of press, human development, global competitiveness, economic freedom, and the featured development indicators of World Bank such as average schooling years, life expectancy, female labour force participation rate, health expenditures rate in GDP, export rate of high technology, and employment rate are used to investigate the relationship in between economic growth and development indices. In order to exploit this relationship, all individual indices are reformed to produce form a single index, what we call harmonic index. The findings show that the higher scores of harmonic Index are associated with higher GDP per capita all levels except Saudi Arabia.Yayın Digital payment systems: a future outlook(PressAcademia, 2022-07-30) Teker, Suat; Teker, Dilek; Orman, IrmakPurpose- This study examines the development of digital payment systems with the evolution of communication technologies, financial institutions and fintech companies. Also, this study analyzes the expected effects of developing payment systems and fintech applications. Methodology- The study defines different types of digital payment systems, compares general characteristics of digital payments, provides a timeline of developments for digital payment systems and compares most used digital payment applications. Findings- The payments market is changing in line with consumer behavior. Cashless economies, mobile banking, instant payments, digital commerce, and the growing impact of regulatory agencies are a few trends affecting the payments market. Contactless payments also make the payment process easier and more convenient for consumers who benefit from shorter lines, cash-on-hand issue elimination, and faster moving queues.The Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to witness significant growth in the market such as China and India. Digital and mobile wallets account for 58% of regional e-commerce payments in the region and are expected to reach 68.2% by 2023. The e-commerce sector is witnessing a spike in demand as consumers order essential items such as food and clothes through e-commerce websites, where most consumers prefer the digital mode of payment.Transition towards the cashless economy, emergence of new online financial institutions, a decentralized monetary governance with the adoption of blockchain and cryptocurrencies are envisioned. Advancements in payment technologies as well as digital payment systems adoption will create momentum and create further investments towards digitalization of monetary exchange. Conclusion- It is concluded that evolution of digital payment systems will extend convenience, return, convergence, cross-border and timelimitless transaction. Inclusion of the unbanked is expected to drive growth and create new opportunities. There is a clear transition towards a cashless economy with the increasing adoption of digital payment systems by all spenders. Speed, privacy, convenience, security and decentralization will mean a wider inclusion for all global citizens; even including some unbanked population. Decentralization and blockchain will mean a blur in distribution of wealth, some money leaving the traditional banking systems. Digital payment systems provide a wide range of transaction options to its users; swiped credit cards, electronic checks, mobile wallets and contactless payment. By 2050s, the circulation of physical money is expected to vanish, leaving its place to virtual currencies changed on digital platforms.Yayın Financial performance of top 20 airlines(Elsevier Science BV, 2016) Teker, Suat; Teker, Dilek; Güner, AyşegülThis empricial research article intends to analyse the financial performance of the top 20 airlines in the Word for the period of year 2011 and 2014. In order to measure the financial performance of the airlines on a uniqie base, an hormonic index is propesed by considering performance areas of profitability, operating, efficiency and liquidity. Next, each performance area is defined by using a various of performance ratios. Finally, all airlines companies examined are listed by their harmonic index scores. The total assets of the 20 biggest airlines are amounted over $457 billion in 2014 and Delta Airlines with an assest size of $54 billion is the biggest ailines. On the other hand, the highest revenue generated by Luftansa in 2011, 2012 and 2013 over $40 billion per year The empricial results show that the worst scores of harmonic index refer American Airlines in 2011, Soutwest in 2012, China Eastern Airlines in 2013 and Quantas Airways in 2014, while the best scores of harmonic index point Delta in 2011, Hainan Airlines in 2012 and EasyJet in 2013 and 2014. This analysis supports that the measurement of financial performance based upon total revenuue or profitability is somehow weak and may be extented by including other indicators.
