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Yayın İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası'nda işlem gören hisse senetlerinin fiyatlandırılmasında likiditenin rolü(Bilgesel Yayıncılık San Tic Ltd, 2010-08) Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin Aydın; Doğanay, MeteBu çalışma hisse senetlerinin likiditesi ve fiyatı arasındaki ilişkiyi bu konunun henüz araştırılmadığı bir pazar olan İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası'nın verisi kullanarak incelemektedir. Çalışmada iki sorunun cevabı aranmıştır. İlk olarak, likiditenin yatay kesit hisse senedi getirilerini etkileyen firma karakteristikleri arasında yer alıp almadığı araştırılmıştır. İkinci olarak ise Fama ve French (1993) modeli baz alınarak ilave bir risk faktörü olarak likiditenin rolü incelenmiştir. Fama ve MacBeth (1973) tarzı analizler yatay kesit hisse senedi getirilerini etkileyen istatistiki açıdan anlamlı değişkenlerin defter değeri/piyasa değeri oranı ve likidite olduğunu belirlemiştir. Zaman serisi regresyon analizleri ise Fama ve French modelinin likiditeyi temsil eden risk faktörü eklenmiş şeklinin, modelin determinasyon katsayısı ve Gibbons, Ross ve Shanken(1989) testi baz alındığında, iyi bir performans sergilediğini göstermiştir. Bu bulgular ışığında çalışmanın kapsadığı 1997-2007 arasındaki dönemde İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası'nda işlem gören hisse senetlerinin fiyatlamasında likiditenin önemli bir rolü olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.Yayın An empirical examination of the generalized Fisher effect using cross-sectional correlation robust tests for panel cointegration(Elsevier Science BV, 2015-03) Omay, Tolga; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınThis study examines the generalized Fisher hypothesis as applied to common stocks by using the recently proposed second generation panel cointegration tests. Unlike their predecessors, these new tests assume the existence of cross-section dependence in the data. For the sample analyzed, we report that these new tests, but not their predecessors, provide strong support for the existence of cointegration between stock and goods prices. Moreover, further analysis cannot reject the hypothesis that the cointegration relation is linear. Finally, our Fisher coefficient estimates are in the range between 0.68 and 1.27 and give support to the generalized Fisher hypothesis.Yayın Global risk aversion and emerging market return comovements(Elsevier Science SA, 2018-12) Demirer, Rıza; Omay, Tolga; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınUtilizing the recently developed measure of global risk aversion by Xu (2017), we show that global risk aversion is a significant determinant of international equity correlations, consistently across all emerging markets examined. The positive effect of risk aversion on emerging market comovements is particularly strong for South Africa and Turkey and is consistent with contagion effects. The results underscore the importance of non-cash flow shocks in models of contagion and portfolio risk.Yayın A note on the examination of the fisher hypothesis by using panel co-integration tests with break(Institute foe Economic Forecasting, 2016) Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Mübariz; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, AydınOne problem encountered when examining the Fisher hypothesis is that various policy changes and economic shocks may induce structural shifts in the long-run relation. We explore the argument that panel cointegration tests based on common correlated effect estimators have reasonably good power and size properties, even in the presence of structural breaks, if the timing of structural shifts roughly coincide to each other across individual group members. Using the data from Omay et al. (2015), which pays special attention to cross-section dependence issue but ignores the possibility of structural break in the data, we provide support to the argument above.Yayın Flight to quality and the predictability of reversals: The role of market states and global factors(Elsevier Science BV, 2017-12) Demirer, Rıza; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınThis paper examines the time-series predictability of reversals in an emerging stock market, Borsa Istanbul. We show that short-term reversals, thus the payoffs to the contrarian strategy, are predictable with the market state found as the primary predictor. The reversal effect is driven by flight to quality stocks with high earnings and low price multiples during negative market states, which then gives rise to subsequent reversals in those stocks, thus predicting higher contrarian payoffs. Interestingly, oil return is found to absorb much of the predictive power of macroeconomic variables and global risk proxies. Our findings lend partial support to risk-based as well as behavioral explanations for reversals and suggest that a contrarian strategy with value stocks, conditional on the market state, could be employed within a managed fund in order to generate abnormal profits that cannot be earned by conventional models.Yayın Time-varying risk aversion and currency excess returns(Elsevier Ltd, 2022-01) Demirer, Rıza; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınThis paper documents an economically significant risk premium associated with a currency's sensitivity to time-varying risk aversion. Consequently, an investment strategy that takes a long (short) position in currencies with high (low) sensitivity to aggregate market risk aversion yields significantly positive excess returns. While advanced market currencies including the Euro, Yen and Swiss Francs dominate the short end of these portfolios with low sensitivity to risk aversion, emerging market currencies including the Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso and Turkish Lira are found to be the most sensitive currencies to risk aversion. The excess returns from the proposed strategy are significant even after controlling for systematic equity market risk factors as well as liquidity risk and cannot be explained by measures of economic conditions or uncertainty. Interestingly, the excess returns generated by the risk aversion-based strategy are found to have significant loadings on global momentum, suggesting possible commonality in the behavioral drivers of anomalies in the global equity and currency markets. The findings highlight the role of behavioral factors as predictor of currency excess returns with significant investment implications.
