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Yayın The impact of expectations on the co-integration relationship between the stock and REIT markets(Inderscience Publishers, 2022-06-29) Ümit, Erol; Yüksel, Aydın; Yüksel, Aslı; Öztürk, HakkıThis paper examines if expectations have a significant impact on the co-integration relationship between stock and real estate investment trust markets. We use two widely followed expectation indicators which are the US yield spread and the expected US stock market volatility (VIX) to test this hypothesis. The US yield spread is decomposed into two components which are the expected short-term interest rate (EF) and a variable term premium (TP) using Hamilton-Kim algorithm. A dataset covering ten developed markets is used. Using co-integration score analysis our findings indicate that expected US short-term interest rates and expected US stock market volatility have a statistically significant and positive impact on the global co-integrations of different countries. This effect is especially valid in the post-global financial crisis period. The expectation-based indicators EF and VIX, however, do not seem to have a significant impact on co-integration at regional and local levels.Yayın The US term structure and return volatility in global REIT markets(Asia University, 2020-09) Demirer, Rıza; Gupta, Rangan; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, AydınThis paper examines the information content of the U.S. term structure of interest rates on the market for real estate investment trusts (REITs) by decomposing the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields into two components that reflect the expectations factor and the maturity premium. We show that the expectations factor component of the U.S yield curve has significant explanatory power over return volatility in REIT stocks, both in the U.S. and globally, even after controlling for stock market trading activity. The expectations factor is generally found to have a positive effect on REIT market volatility, more significantly for the U.S. and Japanese REITs, highlighting the role of global funding conditions (via expected short rates) on return fluctuations in real estate markets. Comparing the findings for the pre-and post-global crisis periods, however, we find that the U.S. term structure has largely lost its explanatory power over global REIT markets, implied by largely insignificant effects during the post-global crisis period. The findings highlight the changing dynamics in REIT investments in the aftermath of the 2018 global credit crunch, possibly due to the slowdown of investmentsin the real estate sector globally, and suggest that investors will have to focus more on the idiosyncratic risk factors that drive these markets.Yayın On the hedging benefits of REITs: The role of risk aversion and market states(Oviedo University Press, 2021-06) Demirer, Rıza; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınWe propose a dynamic, forward-looking hedging strategy to manage stock market risks via positions in REITs, conditional on the level of risk aversion. Our findings show that risk aversion can predict transitions to the high volatility regime in REIT markets when these markets are relatively calm. Accordingly, a hedge on/hedge off strategy based on the level of risk aversion with positions in REITs offer significant risk reduction for passive investors with the greatest benefits observed for the U. S. followed by the U.K. Our findings highlight the role of time-varying risk aversion as a predictor of REIT market volatility and the value of REIT investments as a hedge against stock market fluctuations.
