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Yayın Oil price uncertainty, global industry returns and active investment strategies(Elsevier B.V., 2020-11) Demirer, Rıza; Yüksel, Aydın; Yüksel, AslıThis paper shows that time-varying oil return volatility predicts regime transitions across a majority of global stock sectors, particularly for durables, financials, industrials, oil & gas, telecommunications and utilities. Global stock sectors yield significantly higher returns during periods of low oil market uncertainty and an active, forward-looking investment strategy conditional on the state of oil market volatility yields significantly positive excess returns even after adjusting for systematic risk exposures. The findings show that the predictive information captured by oil market fundamentals can be utilized in active sector rotation strategies.Yayın Trading volume and stock market volatility: evidence from emerging stock markets(LLC CPC Business Perspectives, 2009-01-15) Gürsoy, Güner; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, AydınBased on the 'mixture of distribution' hypothesis, this paper investigates the relationship between trading volume and conditional volatility of returns by using 12 emerging stock market indices over the period between January 2000 and August 2006. The results show that when total trading volume is included in the conditional volatility equation as a proxy for information flow, a moderate level of decline in volatility persistence was observed only for two stock markets. In four stock markets the decline in conditional volatility persistence is very small. On the other hand, for the remaining markets, total trading volume is a poor proxy for information flow. The findings are consistent with the findings of prior research, which suggest that volume may be a good proxy for stock-level analysis, but not for market-level analysis. Furthermore, following Wagner and Marsh (2005) and Arago and Nieto (2005) the relationship between unexpected trading volume (surprise trading volume as an alternative proxy for information flow) and conditional volatility is analyzed. The findings illustrate that for most of the markets, the relationship between surprise volume and conditional volatility is statistically significant.Yayın The U.S. term structure and return volatility in emerging stock markets(Springer, 2020-05-29) Demirer, Rıza; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, AydınThis paper examines the predictive power of the U.S. term structure over return volatility in emerging stock markets. Decomposing the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields into two components, the expectations factor and the maturity premium, we show that the U.S. term structure indeed contains predictive information over emerging stock market volatility, even after controlling for country specific factors including turnover and market size. While we observe heterogeneous patterns across emerging markets in terms of their predictability with respect to the U.S. term structure, we find that the market’s expectation of future short term rates, implied by the expectations factor, serves as a stronger predictor of stock market volatility compared to the maturity premium component of the yield spread. We also find that the U.S. term structure has gained further predictive value following the global financial crisis, particularly for the BRICS nations of China, Russia, and S. Africa. Overall, our findings suggest that policymakers and investors can utilize interest rate signals from the U.S. Treasury yields to make projections over stock market volatility in their local markets, however, distinguishing between the two components of the yield curve could provide additional forecasting power depending on the country of focus.Yayın The impact of expectations on the co-integration relationship between the stock and REIT markets(Inderscience Publishers, 2022-06-29) Ümit, Erol; Yüksel, Aydın; Yüksel, Aslı; Öztürk, HakkıThis paper examines if expectations have a significant impact on the co-integration relationship between stock and real estate investment trust markets. We use two widely followed expectation indicators which are the US yield spread and the expected US stock market volatility (VIX) to test this hypothesis. The US yield spread is decomposed into two components which are the expected short-term interest rate (EF) and a variable term premium (TP) using Hamilton-Kim algorithm. A dataset covering ten developed markets is used. Using co-integration score analysis our findings indicate that expected US short-term interest rates and expected US stock market volatility have a statistically significant and positive impact on the global co-integrations of different countries. This effect is especially valid in the post-global financial crisis period. The expectation-based indicators EF and VIX, however, do not seem to have a significant impact on co-integration at regional and local levels.Yayın The US term structure and return volatility in global REIT markets(Asia University, 2020-09) Demirer, Rıza; Gupta, Rangan; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, AydınThis paper examines the information content of the U.S. term structure of interest rates on the market for real estate investment trusts (REITs) by decomposing the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields into two components that reflect the expectations factor and the maturity premium. We show that the expectations factor component of the U.S yield curve has significant explanatory power over return volatility in REIT stocks, both in the U.S. and globally, even after controlling for stock market trading activity. The expectations factor is generally found to have a positive effect on REIT market volatility, more significantly for the U.S. and Japanese REITs, highlighting the role of global funding conditions (via expected short rates) on return fluctuations in real estate markets. Comparing the findings for the pre-and post-global crisis periods, however, we find that the U.S. term structure has largely lost its explanatory power over global REIT markets, implied by largely insignificant effects during the post-global crisis period. The findings highlight the changing dynamics in REIT investments in the aftermath of the 2018 global credit crunch, possibly due to the slowdown of investmentsin the real estate sector globally, and suggest that investors will have to focus more on the idiosyncratic risk factors that drive these markets.Yayın A note on the examination of the fisher hypothesis by using panel co-integration tests with break(Institute foe Economic Forecasting, 2016) Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Mübariz; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, AydınOne problem encountered when examining the Fisher hypothesis is that various policy changes and economic shocks may induce structural shifts in the long-run relation. We explore the argument that panel cointegration tests based on common correlated effect estimators have reasonably good power and size properties, even in the presence of structural breaks, if the timing of structural shifts roughly coincide to each other across individual group members. Using the data from Omay et al. (2015), which pays special attention to cross-section dependence issue but ignores the possibility of structural break in the data, we provide support to the argument above.
