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Yayın Failure of an exchange-rate-based stabilization plan in Turkey(M E Sharpe, 2003-02) Gökkent, Giyas; Moslares, Carlos; Amiel-Saenz, RafaelThe Turkish exchange-rate-based stabilization plan adopted in 2000 has been a spectacular failure, lasting a mere fourteen months despite a relatively flexible peg regime and preannounced exit strategy. The final three months of the currency regime were marred by the eruption of a banking sector crisis that quickly developed into a currency crisis, quelled only by external loans and a blanket guarantee by the sovereign of all banking sector liabilities. This was ultimately to no avail as the lira was allowed to float following a full-fledged currency crisis in late February 2001. The usual indicators of crisis did not point to imminent turmoil in November 2000 despite widespread concern about eventual dire developments. To identify the source of the November crisis, one must weigh the factors that led economic agents, and banks in particular, to expect higher interest rates after the fall.Yayın Time-varying risk aversion and currency excess returns(Elsevier Ltd, 2022-01) Demirer, Rıza; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınThis paper documents an economically significant risk premium associated with a currency's sensitivity to time-varying risk aversion. Consequently, an investment strategy that takes a long (short) position in currencies with high (low) sensitivity to aggregate market risk aversion yields significantly positive excess returns. While advanced market currencies including the Euro, Yen and Swiss Francs dominate the short end of these portfolios with low sensitivity to risk aversion, emerging market currencies including the Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso and Turkish Lira are found to be the most sensitive currencies to risk aversion. The excess returns from the proposed strategy are significant even after controlling for systematic equity market risk factors as well as liquidity risk and cannot be explained by measures of economic conditions or uncertainty. Interestingly, the excess returns generated by the risk aversion-based strategy are found to have significant loadings on global momentum, suggesting possible commonality in the behavioral drivers of anomalies in the global equity and currency markets. The findings highlight the role of behavioral factors as predictor of currency excess returns with significant investment implications.
