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Yayın Precursors of instability in a natural slope due to rainfall: a full-scale experiment(Springer Heidelberg, 2018-09) Askarinejad, Amin; Akça, Mehmet Devrim; Springman, Sarah MarcellaA full-scale landslide-triggering experiment was conducted on a natural sandy slope subjected to an artificial rainfall event, which resulted in mobilisation of 130m(3) of soil mass. Novel slope deformation sensors (SDSs) were applied to monitor the subsurface pre-failure movements and the precursors of the artificially triggered landslide. These fully automated sensors are more flexible than the conventional inclinometers by several orders of magnitude and therefore are able to detect fine movements (<1mm) of the soil mass reliably. Data from high-frequency measurements of the external bending work, indicating the transmitted energy from the surrounding soil to these sensors, pore water pressure at various depths, horizontal soil pressure and advanced surface monitoring techniques, contributed to an integrated analysis of the processes that led to triggering of the landslide. Precursors of movements were detected before the failure using the horizontal earth pressure measurements, as well as surface and subsurface movement records. The measurements showed accelerating increases of the horizontal earth pressure in the compression zone of the unstable area and external bending work applied to the slope deformation sensors. These data are compared to the pore water pressure and volumetric water content changes leading to failure.Yayın Records of repeated drought stages during the Holocene, Lake Iznik (Turkey) with reference to beachrock(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd., 2016-07-15) Öztürk, Muhammed Zeynel; Erginal, Ahmet Evren; Güneç Kıyak, Nafiye; Demirci, Alper; Ekinci, Yunus Levent; Cürebal, İsa; Avcıoğlu, Mustafa; Öztürk, TuğbaThe cement fabrics, subsurface nature and optically stimulated luminescence age of beachrocks along the shores of Lake Iznik in NW Turkey were studied within the context of Holocene lake level changes. With a maximum thickness of 1.5 m, the low-angle (average 5-10 degrees) beds are composed of coarse grains and small gravels and extend up to 5 m offshore at their most lakeward extremities. Cement textures on and around the poorly-rounded grains are made up of micrite envelopes and meniscus bridges as well as acicular aragonite rims. Geoelectrical resistivity sections taken from a representative location along the beach where the beds have maximum thickness showed that the sand-buried beds are followed up to about 24 m landward. Based on the OSL ages of 33 samples, the cemented beds occurred at four drier periods of the following: Pre- and Early Holocene (dated to 15-9 ka), Holocene Climatic Optimum (7.9-5.6 ka), Middle Holocene (4.9 ka-2.8 ka) and Late Holocene (2.0 ka-0.9 ka).Yayın Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa(Nature Research, 2021-03-21) Zittis, George; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Almazroui, Mansour; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Driouech, Fatima; El Rhaz, Khalid; Kurnaz, Levent; Nikulin, Grigory; Ntoumos, Athanasios; Öztürk, Tuğba; Proestos, Yiannis; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Zaaboul, Rashyd; Lelieveld, JosGlobal climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 degrees C and higher) and will be of extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening for humans. By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) could be exposed to annually recurring super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. It is expected that the vast majority of the exposed population (>90%) will live in urban centers, who would need to cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions.
