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Yayın Projections of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin by using downscaled global climate model outputs(Wiley-Blackwell, 2015-11-30) Öztürk, Tuğba; Ceber, Zeynep Pelin; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThe Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions that shall be affected most by the impacts of the future climate changes on hydrology and water resources. In this study, projected future changes in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and inter-annual variability over the Mediterranean region were studied. For performing this aim, the future changes in annual and seasonal averages for the future period of 2070-2100 with respect to the period from 1970 to 2000 were investigated. Global climate model outputs of the World Climate Research Program's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 multi-model dataset were used in this work. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios' outputs were used in future climate model projections. Future surface mean air temperatures of the larger Mediterranean basin increase mostly in summer and least in winter, and precipitation amounts decrease in all seasons at almost all parts of the basin. Future climate signals for air temperature and total precipitation values are much larger than the inter-model standard deviation. Inter-annual temperature variability increases evidently in summer season and decreases in the northern part of the domain in the winter season, while precipitation variability increases in almost all parts of domain. Probability distribution functions are found to be shifted and flattened for future period compared to the reference period. This indicates that the occurrence of frequency and intensity of high temperatures and heavy precipitation events will likely increase in the future period.Yayın Simulation of temperature and precipitation climatology for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using RegCM 4.0(Inter-Research, 2012) Öztürk, Tuğba; Altınsoy, Hamza; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThe Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is a framework designed to coordinate international efforts on regional climate simulations. CORDEX domains encompass the majority of land areas of the world. Region 8 of the CORDEX basically covers Central Asia, with the corners of the domain at 54.76 degrees N, 11.05 degrees E; 56.48 degrees N, 139.13 degrees E; 18.34 degrees N, 42.41 degrees E; and 19.39 degrees N, 108.44 degrees E and with a horizontal resolution of 50 km. In the present study, the results of an experiment with the ICTP regional climate RegCM 4.0 model that was run for seasonal mean air temperature and precipitation total series are presented. The experiment consists of one simulation from 1989 to 2010 using ERA-Interim reanalysis data as the boundary condition, another simulation for the period 1970-2000 using the global climate model ECHAM5 A1B scenario data for forcing, and finally a simulation for the period 2070-2100 using the ECHAM5 A1B scenario projection data for forcing. Between these 3 simulations we determined the temperature and precipitation climatology obtained from RegCM 4.0 downscaling for Region 8 of the CORDEX framework. In spite of the diverse topography of the region, the temperature and precipitation climatology obtained by RegCM 4.0 from hindcast data captures the general characteristics of the climate of Central Asia. In winter, the warm temperature bias of the forcing data is slightly decreased by regional downscaling. The influences of the Indian monsoon system are well represented, as this region covers a large area towards the southern boundary of Region 8, even though the focus of this work was to capture the general characteristics of the whole region.
