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Yayın Failure of an exchange-rate-based stabilization plan in Turkey(M E Sharpe, 2003-02) Gökkent, Giyas; Moslares, Carlos; Amiel-Saenz, RafaelThe Turkish exchange-rate-based stabilization plan adopted in 2000 has been a spectacular failure, lasting a mere fourteen months despite a relatively flexible peg regime and preannounced exit strategy. The final three months of the currency regime were marred by the eruption of a banking sector crisis that quickly developed into a currency crisis, quelled only by external loans and a blanket guarantee by the sovereign of all banking sector liabilities. This was ultimately to no avail as the lira was allowed to float following a full-fledged currency crisis in late February 2001. The usual indicators of crisis did not point to imminent turmoil in November 2000 despite widespread concern about eventual dire developments. To identify the source of the November crisis, one must weigh the factors that led economic agents, and banks in particular, to expect higher interest rates after the fall.Yayın G20: On Behalf of the Rest?(Elsevier Science BV, 2016) Teker, Suat; Yüksel, Ahmet HakanMajor developments in the last three decades have set the scene for the rise of novel problems on global scale. The unprecedented level of interdependence and interconnectedness between countries, firms and institutions has paved the way for the emergence of, both, novel practices that increase the quality of life and intriguingly complicated issues of global governance. The relationship between global actors are so intertwined that striving for predictability is barely feasible. In spite of the enhanced capabilities gained through involvement in the economic and financial value creation process, there are perils ahead for better global governance. Major issues pose global actors in terms of credibility, building and ensuring sustainability, erosion of capacity to fulfill promises and increasing fragility of financial markets as well as issues regarding depleting energy resources, environment and security. G-20 emerged as a remedial governance structure in the wake of the 2008 financial turmoil making sure that the prominent dynamic emerging countries are seated around the table. The expansion of G-8 into G-20 including the new global powerhouses has many positive implications. However, ongoing debates regarding this structure oscillate between hope and contestation. This conceptual paper intends to draw a general framework regarding the representative capability of G20 members and discuss the hybrid quality of this so called steering committee given the era of turbulence that the world is heading towards.Yayın Comparison of evolutionary techniques for Value-at-Risk calculation(Springer-Verlag Berlin, 2007) Uludağ, Gönül; Etaner Uyar, Ayşe Şima; Senel, Kerem; Dağ, HasanThe Value-at-Risk (VaR) approach has been used for measuring and controlling the market risks in financial institutions. Studies show that the t-distribution is more suited to representing the financial asset returns in VaR calculations than the commonly used normal distribution. The frequency of extremely positive or extremely negative financial asset returns is higher than that is suggested by normal distribution. Such a leptokurtic distribution can better be approximated by a t-distribution. The aim of this study is to asses the performance of a real coded Genetic Algorithm (CA) with Evolutionary Strategies (ES) approach for Maximum Likelihood (ML) parameter estimation. Using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, we compare the test results of VaR simulations using the t-distribution, whose optimal parameters are generated by the Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs), to that of the normal distribution. It turns out that the VaR figures calculated with the assumption of normal distribution significantly understate the VaR figures computed from the actual historical distribution at high confidence levels. On the other hand, for the same confidence levels, the VaR figures calculated with the assumption of t-distribution are very close to the results found using the actual historical distribution. Finally, in order to speed up the MC simulation technique, which is not commonly preferred in financial applications due to its time consuming algorithm, we implement a parallel version of it.
