Debating voter defection in Turkey
Yükleniyor...
Tarih
2023-10-20
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Routledge
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
This study examines patterns of voter defection from Turkey’s incumbent AKP amid major economic and democratic decline. As in other electoral autocracies, defectors constitute a small but politically significant group in Turkey, where the opposition’s ability to secure a transition from authoritarianism depends on reducing the incumbent’s vote share. Based on survey data gathered in November 2021 and February 2022, we find that while the high level of partizanship among AKP voters hinders defection, persistent economic and democratic decline still reduces incumbent support. We also found that defections are higher outside of the lowest income group. Our findings have important implications for opposition strategies in electoral autocracies. Directing public debate away from identity issues to economic and democratic problems increases the likelihood of defection. In addition, offering voters clear superior alternatives decreases the cost of uncertainty that comes with change and increases the likelihood of defection.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Economic crisis, Economic voting, Partizanship, Voter defection, Voter vulnerability, Gezi Park Protests, Electoral success, AKP, Transformation, Polarization, Elections, Populism, Politics, Justice, Decline
Kaynak
Turkish Studies
WoS Q Değeri
Q2
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
25
Sayı
5
Künye
Balta, E., Demiralp, S. & Demiralp, S. (2023). Debating voter defection in Turkey. Turkish Studies, 24(5), 739-763. doi:10.1080/14683849.2023.2200941
