Future projections of temperature and precipitation climatology for CORDEX-MENA domain using RegCM4.4

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Tarih

2018-07-01

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Yayıncı

Elsevier Science Inc

Erişim Hakkı

info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess

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Özet

In this study, we investigate changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation climatology of CORDEX Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for three periods of 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100 with respect to the control period of 1970-2000 by using regional climate model simulations. Projections of future climate conditions are modeled by forcing Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.4 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with two different CMIP5 global climate models. HadGEM2-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were used to generate 50 km resolution data for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Region 13. We test the seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.4 in simulating the observed climatology over domain of the MENA by using the output of two different global climate models. The projection results show relatively high increase of average temperatures from 3 degrees C up to 9 degrees C over the domain for far future (2070-2100). A strong decrease in precipitation is projected in almost all parts of the domain according to the output of the regional model forced by scenario outputs of two global models. Therefore, warmer and drier than present climate conditions are projected to occur more intensely over the CORDEX-MENA domain.

Açıklama

Anahtar Kelimeler

Arid-lands, Climate change, Middle East, Central and North Africa, Regional climate modeling, RegCM4.4, Projections, North-Atlantic oscillation, Mediterranean region, Interannual variability, Mineral aerosols, Extreme events, Middle-East, Model, Simulations, Scenarios, Trends

Kaynak

Atmospheric Research

WoS Q Değeri

Q1
Q1

Scopus Q Değeri

Q1

Cilt

206

Sayı

Künye

Öztürk, T., Turp, M. T., Türkeş, M. & Kurnaz, M. L. (2018). Future projections of temperature and precipitation climatology for CORDEX-MENA domain using RegCM4.4. Atmospheric Research, 206, 87-107. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.02.009