8 sonuçlar
Arama Sonuçları
Listeleniyor 1 - 8 / 8
Yayın Cointegration and adjustment dynamics of REIT and stock markets during the global financial and European debt crises(Inderscience Publishers, 2020-06-03) Erol, Ümit; Yüksel, Sadettin Aydın; Yüksel, Aslı; Öztürk, HakkıThis paper analyses the cointegration relationship between the REIT and stock markets of ten developed countries during the 2005-2013 period, which is characterised by the global financial and the European debt crises. Given the structural breaks in the data, the effect of these two crises is examined separately by dividing the sample period into four equal parts and by using M-TAR cointegration analysis. The results suggest that the cointegration between the stock and REIT markets was not a globally observed feature prior to the twin crises. The strong and globally valid cointegration observed after 2007 was due to the common negative response of both markets to the unexpected massive shocks. These shocks also led to bilateral causality and strong feedback effects between these two markets, thus strictly limiting the diversification benefits of the REIT market during the crisis period.Yayın An empirical examination of the generalized Fisher effect using cross-sectional correlation robust tests for panel cointegration(Elsevier Science BV, 2015-03) Omay, Tolga; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınThis study examines the generalized Fisher hypothesis as applied to common stocks by using the recently proposed second generation panel cointegration tests. Unlike their predecessors, these new tests assume the existence of cross-section dependence in the data. For the sample analyzed, we report that these new tests, but not their predecessors, provide strong support for the existence of cointegration between stock and goods prices. Moreover, further analysis cannot reject the hypothesis that the cointegration relation is linear. Finally, our Fisher coefficient estimates are in the range between 0.68 and 1.27 and give support to the generalized Fisher hypothesis.Yayın Stock return seasonality and the temperature effect(EuroJournals Publishing, 2009-12) Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınMotivated by prior evidence that the relation between temperature and stock returns may be spurious, this study investigates the extent to which accounting for seasonality changes the explanatory power of temperature for stock index returns. Prior research using monthly data indicates that the portion of variability in stock returns that is explained by temperature can be explained equally well by any seasonal variable. Using daily stock market index and temperature data from 42 countries the effect of temperature on both the mean and variance of stock returns is analyzed through the use of GARCH modeling. The results show that a significant portion of the temperature effect is due to seasonal component of raw temperature. Furthermore, deseasonalized temperature has a moderate impact not only on the mean but also on the conditional variance of stock index returns. The results also indicate that the Halloween indicator, which is a seasonal dummy variable, has much less explanatory power using daily rather than monthly data. Its presence does not affect the explanatory power of deseasonalized temperature. Based on the findings, the paper concludes that although the relation between temperature and stock returns is not spurious, it is weaker than indicated by some earlier studies.Yayın On the performance of West's bubble test: A simulation approach(Elsevier science inc, 2010-12-01) Yüksel, Sadettin Aydın; Akdeniz, Levent; Altay Salih, AslıhanIn this research we examine the ability of West's bubble test [1] in detecting speculative bubbles using Brock's (1982) [2] intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset pricing as the basis for a simulation study. In this setting, (1) the economy, by construction is efficient and produces the maximally possible amount of welfare for society, and (2) asset prices reflect the utility-maximizing behavior of consumers and the profit-maximizing behavior of firms. We find that the West's bubble test flag as "bubbles" in the simulated data yet the data is produced from an economy in which markets are efficient in welfare production.Yayın Global risk aversion and emerging market return comovements(Elsevier Science SA, 2018-12) Demirer, Rıza; Omay, Tolga; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınUtilizing the recently developed measure of global risk aversion by Xu (2017), we show that global risk aversion is a significant determinant of international equity correlations, consistently across all emerging markets examined. The positive effect of risk aversion on emerging market comovements is particularly strong for South Africa and Turkey and is consistent with contagion effects. The results underscore the importance of non-cash flow shocks in models of contagion and portfolio risk.Yayın Flight to quality and the predictability of reversals: The role of market states and global factors(Elsevier Science BV, 2017-12) Demirer, Rıza; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınThis paper examines the time-series predictability of reversals in an emerging stock market, Borsa Istanbul. We show that short-term reversals, thus the payoffs to the contrarian strategy, are predictable with the market state found as the primary predictor. The reversal effect is driven by flight to quality stocks with high earnings and low price multiples during negative market states, which then gives rise to subsequent reversals in those stocks, thus predicting higher contrarian payoffs. Interestingly, oil return is found to absorb much of the predictive power of macroeconomic variables and global risk proxies. Our findings lend partial support to risk-based as well as behavioral explanations for reversals and suggest that a contrarian strategy with value stocks, conditional on the market state, could be employed within a managed fund in order to generate abnormal profits that cannot be earned by conventional models.Yayın On the hedging benefits of REITs: The role of risk aversion and market states(Oviedo University Press, 2021-06) Demirer, Rıza; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınWe propose a dynamic, forward-looking hedging strategy to manage stock market risks via positions in REITs, conditional on the level of risk aversion. Our findings show that risk aversion can predict transitions to the high volatility regime in REIT markets when these markets are relatively calm. Accordingly, a hedge on/hedge off strategy based on the level of risk aversion with positions in REITs offer significant risk reduction for passive investors with the greatest benefits observed for the U. S. followed by the U.K. Our findings highlight the role of time-varying risk aversion as a predictor of REIT market volatility and the value of REIT investments as a hedge against stock market fluctuations.Yayın Time-varying risk aversion and currency excess returns(Elsevier Ltd, 2022-01) Demirer, Rıza; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınThis paper documents an economically significant risk premium associated with a currency's sensitivity to time-varying risk aversion. Consequently, an investment strategy that takes a long (short) position in currencies with high (low) sensitivity to aggregate market risk aversion yields significantly positive excess returns. While advanced market currencies including the Euro, Yen and Swiss Francs dominate the short end of these portfolios with low sensitivity to risk aversion, emerging market currencies including the Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso and Turkish Lira are found to be the most sensitive currencies to risk aversion. The excess returns from the proposed strategy are significant even after controlling for systematic equity market risk factors as well as liquidity risk and cannot be explained by measures of economic conditions or uncertainty. Interestingly, the excess returns generated by the risk aversion-based strategy are found to have significant loadings on global momentum, suggesting possible commonality in the behavioral drivers of anomalies in the global equity and currency markets. The findings highlight the role of behavioral factors as predictor of currency excess returns with significant investment implications.
