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Yayın An empirical examination of the generalized Fisher effect using cross-sectional correlation robust tests for panel cointegration(Elsevier Science BV, 2015-03) Omay, Tolga; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınThis study examines the generalized Fisher hypothesis as applied to common stocks by using the recently proposed second generation panel cointegration tests. Unlike their predecessors, these new tests assume the existence of cross-section dependence in the data. For the sample analyzed, we report that these new tests, but not their predecessors, provide strong support for the existence of cointegration between stock and goods prices. Moreover, further analysis cannot reject the hypothesis that the cointegration relation is linear. Finally, our Fisher coefficient estimates are in the range between 0.68 and 1.27 and give support to the generalized Fisher hypothesis.Yayın On the performance of West's bubble test: A simulation approach(Elsevier science inc, 2010-12-01) Yüksel, Sadettin Aydın; Akdeniz, Levent; Altay Salih, AslıhanIn this research we examine the ability of West's bubble test [1] in detecting speculative bubbles using Brock's (1982) [2] intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset pricing as the basis for a simulation study. In this setting, (1) the economy, by construction is efficient and produces the maximally possible amount of welfare for society, and (2) asset prices reflect the utility-maximizing behavior of consumers and the profit-maximizing behavior of firms. We find that the West's bubble test flag as "bubbles" in the simulated data yet the data is produced from an economy in which markets are efficient in welfare production.Yayın Flight to quality and the predictability of reversals: The role of market states and global factors(Elsevier Science BV, 2017-12) Demirer, Rıza; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınThis paper examines the time-series predictability of reversals in an emerging stock market, Borsa Istanbul. We show that short-term reversals, thus the payoffs to the contrarian strategy, are predictable with the market state found as the primary predictor. The reversal effect is driven by flight to quality stocks with high earnings and low price multiples during negative market states, which then gives rise to subsequent reversals in those stocks, thus predicting higher contrarian payoffs. Interestingly, oil return is found to absorb much of the predictive power of macroeconomic variables and global risk proxies. Our findings lend partial support to risk-based as well as behavioral explanations for reversals and suggest that a contrarian strategy with value stocks, conditional on the market state, could be employed within a managed fund in order to generate abnormal profits that cannot be earned by conventional models.Yayın Time-varying risk aversion and currency excess returns(Elsevier Ltd, 2022-01) Demirer, Rıza; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Sadettin AydınThis paper documents an economically significant risk premium associated with a currency's sensitivity to time-varying risk aversion. Consequently, an investment strategy that takes a long (short) position in currencies with high (low) sensitivity to aggregate market risk aversion yields significantly positive excess returns. While advanced market currencies including the Euro, Yen and Swiss Francs dominate the short end of these portfolios with low sensitivity to risk aversion, emerging market currencies including the Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso and Turkish Lira are found to be the most sensitive currencies to risk aversion. The excess returns from the proposed strategy are significant even after controlling for systematic equity market risk factors as well as liquidity risk and cannot be explained by measures of economic conditions or uncertainty. Interestingly, the excess returns generated by the risk aversion-based strategy are found to have significant loadings on global momentum, suggesting possible commonality in the behavioral drivers of anomalies in the global equity and currency markets. The findings highlight the role of behavioral factors as predictor of currency excess returns with significant investment implications.
