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Yayın Consumer response to economic crisis and lessons for marketers: The Turkish experience(Elsevier Science Inc, 2014-01) Kaytaz, Mehmet; Gül, Mısra ÇağlaPrivate consumption is the largest component of gross domestic product (GDP). It has a substantial impact on the speed of recovery from an economic crisis. This paper aims to examine the behavior of consumers, firms, and government in Turkey in response to the recent global economic crisis. Turkey was one of the few countries that emerged from the economic downturn relatively quickly. The demographics of consumers, the solidity of financial sector, and the government policies led to a speedy recovery from the crisis through an increase in consumption expenditures. During the initial shock, consumers switched to cheaper goods and decreased consumption expenditures in total. The government emphasized that the impact of crisis would be limited. The opening of credit lines, the temporary reduction in value-added tax and special consumption tax on certain commodities, aggressive marketing campaigns, and a rosy future drawn by chambers of commerce and NGOs in specific promotional activities were influential in increasing consumption. This paper discusses the consumer response to and the marketing lessons derived from this experience.Yayın The effect of mad cow (BSE) scare on beef demand and sales loss: The case of Izmir(Scientific Technical Research Council Turkey-Tubitak, 2005) Miran, Bülent; Akgüngör, Emine SedefThis paper investigates the effect of the BSE scare on beef consumption due to the intense media coverage. Using monthly data, a beef demand model for January 1995-February 1997 period is estimated for Izmir Province. Beef sales dropped immediately after the media coverage on BSE in April 1996 and continued through June 1996 when the intense media coverage stopped. The econometric model reveals that beef sales in Izmir would have been 36.4 % higher if the BSE crisis never occurred. The annual individual willingness to pay is $0.5224 per year to avoid consuming BSE contaminated meat.Yayın Comparison of evolutionary techniques for Value-at-Risk calculation(Springer-Verlag Berlin, 2007) Uludağ, Gönül; Etaner Uyar, Ayşe Şima; Senel, Kerem; Dağ, HasanThe Value-at-Risk (VaR) approach has been used for measuring and controlling the market risks in financial institutions. Studies show that the t-distribution is more suited to representing the financial asset returns in VaR calculations than the commonly used normal distribution. The frequency of extremely positive or extremely negative financial asset returns is higher than that is suggested by normal distribution. Such a leptokurtic distribution can better be approximated by a t-distribution. The aim of this study is to asses the performance of a real coded Genetic Algorithm (CA) with Evolutionary Strategies (ES) approach for Maximum Likelihood (ML) parameter estimation. Using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, we compare the test results of VaR simulations using the t-distribution, whose optimal parameters are generated by the Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs), to that of the normal distribution. It turns out that the VaR figures calculated with the assumption of normal distribution significantly understate the VaR figures computed from the actual historical distribution at high confidence levels. On the other hand, for the same confidence levels, the VaR figures calculated with the assumption of t-distribution are very close to the results found using the actual historical distribution. Finally, in order to speed up the MC simulation technique, which is not commonly preferred in financial applications due to its time consuming algorithm, we implement a parallel version of it.Yayın Doğrudan pazarlama amaçlı hedef kitle analizi(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2018-07-05) Kegeci, Sinan; Özbek, Eyüp Erkan; Türkel, Mustafa Sertaç; Düzağaç, Remzi; Yıldız, Olcay TanerDoğrudan pazarlama, uygun ürünleri uygun kişilerle en kısa yoldan buluşturma sürecidir. Son yılların en popüler pazarlama yaklaşımlarından birisidir. Bu çalışmada turizm sektörüne ait isimsizleştirilmiş bir veri tabanını kullandık. Bir otel zinciri için yapılan kampanya kapsamında veri madenciliği tekniklerini uygulayarak hedef kitle seçimi yaptık. Çalışmada birçok makine öğrenmesi yöntemini denedik. Sonuç olarak; geçmişte yapılan ve herhangi bir makine öğrenmesi yöntemi kullanılmadan hazırlanan kampanya sonuçlarına göre daha iyi sonuçlar elde ederken benzer analizlerde kullanılabilecek bir altyapı oluşturmuş olduk.
